One of today's great mysteries is the future evolution of the price of fuels for the generation of electricity. This is due both to the uncertain evolution in the price of oil and oil byproducts and to the impact of deregulation in the price of natural gas at wellhead in the medium and long term, as well as to fluctuations in the supply price of electricity within a deregulated and diversified system such as the Argentine one. The present work delves into these matters and provides a joint forecast of the price of the main fuels for electricity generation under different hypothesis combinations. At the same time, it includes a brief analysis of the repercussions which a price increase of natural gas at wellhead would have on electricity costs and contrasts such forecasts with those arising from different supply scenarios, referring the analysis to average annual monomial prices from the wholesale electricity market.
Furthermore, limitations are pointed out as regards information and methodology limitations to carry out forecasts with predictive rather than informative value, notwithstanding the inclusion of means to deal with uncertainty.