The main objective of the current analysis is related to the need everyday found in the Sector, and essentially in the electrical sector, to have at hand a methodology allowing us to decide upon the convenience to perform or not an Investment, to delay or not such a decision, and mainly about the possibility of establishing the degree of uncertainly contained in each of the explanatory variables (prices, demand, rates, etc.), allowing to reach the maximum profits with the least Riski.
There are two levels of problems to solve. The first on refers to the decision of establishing the opportunity for an investment, and the second, is the conceptual and highly conflictive problem posed by the need to differentiate the classical technical-economical analysis based on the marginalist theory from the managing aspect of the financial investment which, in its search of maximum performance (profit), is not necessarily reached through the marginalist theory.
Current experience in Califomia-Oregon (COB) and Palo Verde, the Scandinavian countries, New Zealand, and Cammesa, permits to suggest the convenience to implement an auction system allowing to bring face to face both the offering parties (producers) and the demand parties (distributors, major users, etc). They should confront the contingency and, not necessarily, should they be guided by the economical optimums, thus reaching spot prices which could be under 20 US$/MWh.