HPHT wells represent one class of problems where the performance of current sand prediction models has not been properly evaluated. We applied three different sanding models to a cluster of six HPHT wells. In all these wells, no sanding was observed under considerable levels of drawdown, certainly far surpassing conditions required for sand failure. Moreover, under failed conditions, the wells were producing high rates of gas for very long periods.

The approaches used included popular analytical shear failure and tensile failure based models which showed an unusually high level of conservatism in their prediction of sanding in high pressure wells. We provide a plausible explanation for this behavior which is attributed to the underlying proposition that sand production occurs when sand fails. While this supposition is used in all applications of such models, in deep, high stress and pressure systems, the problem is magnified due to the fact that failure occurs relatively early in the operating life of the reservoir. We propose an alternate approach where sand production criterion is extended to include not only sand failure but also adequate seepage forces to liquefy the sand and hence mobilize it. This approach is shown to better capture the observed response in the field. As an added bonus, the proposed approach quantifies the volume of sand rather than simply give indications of the onset of sand production. This information is helpful in developing the optimal production strategy throughout the life of field.

In this paper, we discuss the pros and cons of the commonly used models for sand prediction and provide examples to validate the newly proposed concepts for quantifying sand production.

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