This paper reports on the development of a risk-based burst design method. A criterion is developed so that ductile materials can be identified. The results for an experimental and analytical burst pressure study are combined with a large body of data for tubular dimensions and material properties. Statistical measures were obtained for all the data and a reliability study was performed on the design equations developed. This reliability study investigated:

  • The relationships between probability of failure the design factor used in the design.

  • The relationship between material grade and the probability of failure.

  • The effect of axial tension on the probability of failure.

  • The effect of flaw frequency on the probability of failure of a well string.

  • The effect of D/T ratio on failure probability.

The methods developed can be used to estimate the probability of failure for well casing and tubing under any given combination of pressure and axial loads.

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