The purpose of this ice transit analysis is to determine the optimum sea routes and to estimate the operation cost, transit hour, and average speed for large cargo vessels navigating in the Arctic Sea Route prior to an actual deployment of commercial cargo vessel fleet. Four different Arctic ships, such as two bulk carriers, an LNG carrier and a crude oil tanker, are selected for Northern Sea Route transit simulation. Ice and environmental information such as sea ice thickness and concentration, wind direction and wave height are gathered and their probabilistic distribution are used to carry out a transit simulation. In an ice-covered sea, the size and distribution of sea ice significantly restrict the operation of ships and the icebreaker assistance may be an important decision for keeping the speed and direction as planned. Information of multi-year ridge formation and water depth along the Northern Sea Route are added in this analysis. After the selection of optimum sea route, total transit distances and hours, average speed, cost for icebreaker escort and total operation cost are calculated in sequence for each vessel.

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