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Production forecasting decline curve analysis

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Proceedings Papers

Publisher: Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE)
Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, September 21–23, 2021
Paper Number: SPE-206152-MS
... to construct the partial solution to the optimization problem as a function of production history. Results from this work provide sufficient evidence as to why traditional decline curve analysis (DCA) is not a suitable solution for production forecasting in unconventional reservoirs. Two case studies...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Asia Pacific Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, November 18–19, 2019
Paper Number: URTEC-198198-MS
... 179171 presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference , The Woodlands, Texas, USA , 9-11, February . Li , Y. and Han , Y. 2017 . Decline Curve Analysis for Production Forecasting Based on Machine Learning . Paper SPE 189205 presented at the SPE Symposium: Production...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, September 30–October 2, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-195916-MS
... approaches such as decline curve analysis (DCA) are normally used for production forecasting and reserve estimation. DCA is computationally more efficient compared to simulation models when the active well base exceeds hundreds of wells. However, the underlying assumption for conventional DCA is no change...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, August 5–7, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-198734-MS
... to judge which type curve production data match. A frequently-used technique for forecasting production is Decline Curve Analysis(DCA). It is a traditional means of identifying well production problems and predicting well performance and life based on measured oil well production. It involves...
Journal Articles
SPE Res Eval & Eng 22 (03): 861–876.
Paper Number: SPE-194503-PA
Published: 05 April 2019
... the proposed approach can mitigate over/underestimates resulting from using a single decline-curve model for forecasting. The proposed approach performs well in propagating model uncertainty to uncertainty in production forecasting; that is, we determine a forecast that represents uncertainty given multiple...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, October 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-191985-MS
.... Distance between the laterals is 100 m. Decline curves remain a popular tool for forecasting production from oil and gas wells. In this paper, we present a methodology to construct a statistical type curve-based production forecast. One of the motivations for this work was to have a forecasting tool...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: URTEC-2900625-MS
... Upstream Oil & Gas Arp model production monitoring production forecasting model uncertainty SEM confidence interval pan crm probabilistic dca probability model parameter cumulative oil production decline curve analysis oil production oil production rate Bakken well flow behavior...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Symposium: Production Enhancement and Cost Optimisation, November 7–8, 2017
Paper Number: SPE-189205-MS
... in porous media Reservoir Surveillance machine learning Artificial Intelligence Fluid Dynamics Upstream Oil & Gas neural network production monitoring production forecasting variance recovery decline curve analysis logistic growth model hydraulic fracture parameter production profile...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, March 21–23, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-153914-MS
... the fracture trajectory has little or no effect on productivity except for situations where formation anisotropy comes to play. Abstract This paper involves the use of simulation models and the decline curve analysis (DCA) as a production optimization and forecasting tools. Production data from three...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Fall Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, October 3–6, 1965
Paper Number: SPE-1254-MS
...SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS OF AJJ.1E 6300 North Central Expressway Dallas 6, Texas PAPER NUMBER SP E 1254 THIS IS A PREPRINT SUBJECT TO CORRECTION OIL PRODUCTION FORECASTING BY DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS By Robert W. Mannon, * Member AJJ.1E Montana College of Mineral Science and Technology, Butte...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the International Petroleum Technology Conference, March 23–April 1, 2021
Paper Number: IPTC-21350-MS
... upstream oil & gas engineer algorithm intelligence neural network driven approach artificial neural network target parameter training purpose forecast production decline curve analysis comparative analysis international petroleum technology conference With depleting conventional...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, October 13–16, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-197991-MS
... & Gas forecast process decline curve analysis forecast different stage society of petroleum engineers DCA national oil company production control production forecasting Engineer reservoir level multiple methodology Production forecasting always play an important role in decision...
Journal Articles
SPE Res Eval & Eng 22 (04): 1562–1574.
Paper Number: SPE-197055-PA
Published: 31 May 2019
...Zhenke Xi; Eugene Morgan Summary To estimate the production potential at a new, prospective field site by means of simulation or material balance, one needs to collect various forms of costly field data and make assumptions about the nature of the formation at that site. Declinecurve analysis (DCA...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG Eastern Regional Meeting, October 7–11, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-191793-18ERM-MS
... Decline curve analysis (DCA) is one of the basic tools used in production rate forecasting and recovery estimation ( Bhattacharya and Nikolaou, 2013 ). Arps’ hyperbolic rate-time equation ( Arps, 1945 ) which has been widely applied in conventional play can also capture the feature of shale gas...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, April 22–26, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190104-MS
... for future production calculation. Figure 7 Compare ANN simulation results with traditional DCA methods. We also compare the NN results with several traditional decline curve analysis (DCA) methods. ANN forecasting gives much better trend catching than DCA methods and much smaller errors...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the The Twenty-fourth International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, June 15–20, 2014
Paper Number: ISOPE-I-14-158
... hyperbolic decline simulation production control type curve reservoir surveillance histogram decline curve analysis sepd production data probabilistic method upstream oil & gas monte carlo simulation production monitoring sepd model Application of a Probabilistic Method to the Forecast...
Journal Articles
Journal: SPE Journal
SPE J. 19 (06): 1047–1057.
Paper Number: SPE-147588-PA
Published: 15 May 2014
... generate probabilistic production forecasts and quantify reserves uncertainty for single wells on the basis of decline-curve analysis of existing production. For a data set including 100 conventional oil and gas wells, the P90–P10 range for the incremental production of second half from Jochen and Spivey's...
Zeta 11 <b>Production</b> <b>forecast</b> using <b>decline</b> <b>curve</b> <b>analysis</b>. The initial rate ...
Published: 31 July 2017
Figure 14 Zeta 11 Production forecast using decline curve analysis. The initial rate to start the decline curve analysis after stimulation was 2042 stb/d, the rate if skin is reduced to 0. More
Plot of oil <b>production</b> <b>forecast</b> by <b>decline</b> <b>curve</b> <b>analysis</b>
Published: 21 October 2020
Figure 8 Plot of oil production forecast by decline curve analysis More
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Intelligent Energy International Conference and Exhibition, September 6–8, 2016
Paper Number: SPE-181030-MS
... series. The trending component revealed by SSA for production prediction matches the forecasting capability of traditional reservoir production decline curve analysis (DCA), and is a considerable time-saving method. Unlike DCA, SSA is a nonparametric, modeless time series analysis method so no assumption...

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