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Production forecasting decline curve analysis

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Journal Articles
SPE Res Eval & Eng 25 (03): 568–582.
Paper Number: SPE-209616-PA
Published: 11 August 2022
... . J Mach Learn Res 15 ( 1 ): 1593 – 1623 . Hong , A. , Bratvold , R. B. , Lake , L. W . et al . 2019 . Integrating Model Uncertainty in Probabilistic Decline-Curve Analysis for Unconventional-Oil-Production Forecasting . SPE Res Eval & Eng 22 ( 3 ): 861 – 876 . SPE...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, September 21–23, 2021
Paper Number: SPE-206152-MS
... the partial solution to the optimization problem as a function of production history. Results from this work provide sufficient evidence as to why traditional decline curve analysis (DCA) is not a suitable solution for production forecasting in unconventional reservoirs. Two case studies are discussed...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Asia Pacific Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, November 18–19, 2019
Paper Number: URTEC-198198-MS
... 179171 presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference , The Woodlands, Texas, USA , 9-11, February . Li , Y. and Han , Y. 2017 . Decline Curve Analysis for Production Forecasting Based on Machine Learning . Paper SPE 189205 presented at the SPE Symposium: Production...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, September 30–October 2, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-195916-MS
... Abstract In the absence of well-developed calibrated geologic and simulation models, empirical approaches such as decline curve analysis (DCA) are normally used for production forecasting and reserve estimation. DCA is computationally more efficient compared to simulation models when the active...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, August 5–7, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-198734-MS
... Drillstem Testing solution-ga drive reservoir decline scenario decline curve analysis Scenario Fetkovich type curve reservoir equation reservoir pressure decline scenario data plot Introduction A frequently-used technique for forecasting production is Decline Curve Analysis(DCA...
Journal Articles
SPE Res Eval & Eng 22 (03): 861–876.
Paper Number: SPE-194503-PA
Published: 05 April 2019
... the proposed approach can mitigate over/underestimates resulting from using a single decline-curve model for forecasting. The proposed approach performs well in propagating model uncertainty to uncertainty in production forecasting; that is, we determine a forecast that represents uncertainty given multiple...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, October 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-191985-MS
... Abstract In this paper, we introduce a methodology for the automated construction of a statistical forecast for gas production from coalbed methane wells. The approach uses decline curves to extrapolate production from individual wells and provides a statistical range of outcomes based...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: URTEC-2900625-MS
... Upstream Oil & Gas Arp model production monitoring production forecasting model uncertainty SEM confidence interval pan crm probabilistic dca probability model parameter cumulative oil production decline curve analysis oil production oil production rate Bakken well flow behavior...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Symposium: Production Enhancement and Cost Optimisation, November 7–8, 2017
Paper Number: SPE-189205-MS
... in porous media Reservoir Surveillance machine learning Artificial Intelligence Fluid Dynamics Upstream Oil & Gas neural network production monitoring production forecasting variance recovery decline curve analysis logistic growth model hydraulic fracture parameter production profile...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, March 21–23, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-153914-MS
... the fracture trajectory has little or no effect on productivity except for situations where formation anisotropy comes to play. Abstract This paper involves the use of simulation models and the decline curve analysis (DCA) as a production optimization and forecasting tools. Production data from three...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Fall Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, October 3–6, 1965
Paper Number: SPE-1254-MS
... forecast decline curve analysis production rate decline-curve analysis oil production forecasting Petroleum Engineer SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS OF AJJ.1E 6300 North Central Expressway Dallas 6, Texas PAPER NUMBER SP E 1254 THIS IS A PREPRINT SUBJECT TO CORRECTION OIL PRODUCTION FORECASTING...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, April 26–28, 2022
Paper Number: SPE-209332-MS
... settings for North American unconventional operators. Using decline curve analysis to accurately predict oil and gas rates is pertinent to the longevity of these unconventional reservoirs. energy economics production monitoring reservoir surveillance production forecasting shale oil production...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the International Petroleum Technology Conference, March 23–April 1, 2021
Paper Number: IPTC-21350-MS
... upstream oil & gas engineer algorithm intelligence neural network driven approach artificial neural network target parameter training purpose forecast production decline curve analysis comparative analysis international petroleum technology conference Introduction With depleting...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Kuwait Oil & Gas Show and Conference, October 13–16, 2019
Paper Number: SPE-197991-MS
... & Gas forecast process decline curve analysis forecast different stage society of petroleum engineers DCA national oil company production control production forecasting Engineer reservoir level multiple methodology Introduction The reference plot is an essential component of any DCA...
Journal Articles
SPE Res Eval & Eng 22 (04): 1562–1574.
Paper Number: SPE-197055-PA
Published: 31 May 2019
... perforation-interval length production data decline curve histogram application decline-curve parameter matrix engineering heatmap Thickness drillinginfo pennsylvania state university prediction Marcellus Shale decline-curve analysis forecast SPE Reservoir Evaluation november 2019...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG Eastern Regional Meeting, October 7–11, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-191793-18ERM-MS
... Decline curve analysis (DCA) is one of the basic tools used in production rate forecasting and recovery estimation ( Bhattacharya and Nikolaou, 2013 ). Arps’ hyperbolic rate-time equation ( Arps, 1945 ) which has been widely applied in conventional play can also capture the feature of shale gas...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, April 22–26, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190104-MS
... Abstract Production forecast can significantly influence field development planning and economic evaluation. Traditional methods including numerical simulations and decline curve analysis models (DCA) requires extensive domain knowledge or lack of flexibility in modeling complex physics...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the The Twenty-fourth International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, June 15–20, 2014
Paper Number: ISOPE-I-14-158
... hyperbolic decline simulation production control type curve reservoir surveillance histogram decline curve analysis sepd production data probabilistic method upstream oil & gas monte carlo simulation production monitoring sepd model Application of a Probabilistic Method to the Forecast...
Journal Articles
Journal: SPE Journal
SPE J. 19 (06): 1047–1057.
Paper Number: SPE-147588-PA
Published: 15 May 2014
... generate probabilistic production forecasts and quantify reserves uncertainty for single wells on the basis of decline-curve analysis of existing production. For a data set including 100 conventional oil and gas wells, the P90–P10 range for the incremental production of second half from Jochen and Spivey's...

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