... discusses combining the concepts of variability and uncertainty [ 11 ], and uses a two dimensional Monte-Carlo simulation (2-D MCS method) for quantitative risk analysis. The use of the 2-D MCS method effectively analyzes the variability of systemic risk and the uncertainty of risk events. Managing...

... Carlo simulation analysis. He suggested application of one of the levels based on the availability of data. He motioned that higher levels of the model should be applied as more data is obtained. ARMA 11-128 Assessment and Mitigation of Drilling Risks Using ROP Model Coupled with Monte Carlo...

... incremental recovery mechanism identified. A risk assessment and risk management appraisal is applied 2 by first identifying a range of parameters that can strongly affect the outcome of the project (critical project parameters). A Monte Carlo risk assessment is made of the base case cold and hot water...

... evaluation input data core data risk assessment representativeness quasi-random number geologic modeling artificial intelligence simulation variability geological modeling risk and uncertainty assessment petrophysical uncertainty well logging monte carlo simulation integration accuracy 1...

... Simulation is an increasingly important part of static modeling workflows risk and uncertainty assessment reserves evaluation convergence risk management reservoir simulation probabilistic original hydrocarbon iteration modeling & simulation upstream oil & gas monte carlo simulation...

...). Between the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used in geotechnical society: FOSM (first order and second moment), estimate points (Rosenblueth) and Monte Carlo. In this paper is presented a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyzes (FOSM method, Monte...

... for several decades, present computing systems cannot handle the vast amounts of data generated in a Monte Carlo simulation of a large number of assets. In this study, we discuss a pragmatic approach to developing a risked portfolio of E&P assets. The precision of this approach is assessed through...

... worries and identification of serious accidents which may cause dam failure, is very crucial. To assess the probability of internal Erosion, the risk analysis can be utilized. Monte-Carlo simulation is one of the tools which can quantify the risk analysis result due to uncertainties in the Geotechnical...

... Abstract Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that probabilistic models of hydrocarbon volumes should correlate the degree of porosity uncertainty to the productive volume of the reservoir. Assessments that fail to model the relationship between productive volume and porosity uncertainty may...

..., ROWC (rate of well completion) is introduced. The results of interpretation and statistical analysis are presented as well. drilling operation quantitative risk analysis risk management Upstream Oil & Gas risk and uncertainty assessment Monte Carlo simulation Simulation problem time...

... ligero derivative tree flow simulation Monte Carlo Technique derivative tree technique risk management risk assessment Simulation simulation run response surface Reservoir Characterization reservoir simulation factorial design numerical flow simulation experimental design risk curve...

... Abstract A general method to determine uncertainty in risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling is presented. This method is compared with a traditional approach to show that its uncertainty is several orders of magnitude less. Part of the approach is to remove...

... for reservoir simulators. case 2 monte carlo technique case 1 reservoir simulation application risk assessment response surface derivative tree technique risk curve simulation run error index central composite design risk management upstream oil & gas statistical design multiplier...

... in Saudi is illustrated to verify the validity of proposed method in practice. On the basis of the traditional cost risk analysis by Monte-Carlo simulation, the methodology of analyzing project cost estimates by integrating market-drivers, Monte-Carlo simulation and the Likert scale are proposed and obtain...

... prevents the unnecessary expense of repeat work whilst providing assurance of continued fitness for service. Monte Carlo analysis provided a practical way to manage risks when inspection data was scarce resulting in a picture of the condition of their equipment over time. This assisted with key...

... on two design strength profiles corresponding to the low and high estimates. risk management class jack-up rig artificial intelligence reserves evaluation drilling operation management monte carlo simulation upstream oil & gas jack-up rig strong clay houlsby spudcan monte carlo model...

.... This behaviour would tend to result in optimistic stability assessments when using Monte Carlo methods with samples smaller than 250 in size 7 CONCLUSIONS " .The Latin Hypercube Sampling method has been successfully applied to probabilistic rock slope stability analyses. The method was found to represent input...

... is attributed by distribution type. Distribution of probabilities is the most realistic tool for description of uncertainties of geological and oil field data while risks analysis. Prior to geological model design or assessment of resources by Monte-Carlo technique, the evaluated uncertainties are ranked due...