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Monte carlo risk assessment

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Journal Articles
SPE Prod & Oper 36 (04): 886–893.
Paper Number: SPE-205510-PA
Published: 10 November 2021
... to present a new approach to assessing the risk of formation damage caused by asphaltene deposition using Monte Carlo simulations. Using this approach, the probability-distribution function of the permeability reduction was obtained. To connect this information to a parameter more related to economic...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, September 28–30, 2015
Paper Number: SPE-174885-MS
... discusses combining the concepts of variability and uncertainty [ 11 ], and uses a two dimensional Monte-Carlo simulation (2-D MCS method) for quantitative risk analysis. The use of the 2-D MCS method effectively analyzes the variability of systemic risk and the uncertainty of risk events. Managing...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the 45th U.S. Rock Mechanics / Geomechanics Symposium, June 26–29, 2011
Paper Number: ARMA-11-128
... Carlo simulation analysis. He suggested application of one of the levels based on the availability of data. He motioned that higher levels of the model should be applied as more data is obtained. ARMA 11-128 Assessment and Mitigation of Drilling Risks Using ROP Model Coupled with Monte Carlo...
Journal Articles
SPE Comp App 6 (03): 19–23.
Paper Number: SPE-26243-PA
Published: 01 June 1994
...Michael L. Wiggins; Xu Zhang Summary Implementing Monte Carlo methods on a PC can significantly improve risk assessment in the evaluation of workover opportunities. Monte Carlo simulation is a probabilistic method that allows the evaluator to consider an entire range of potential outcomes...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/DOE Improved Oil Recovery Symposium, April 21–24, 1996
Paper Number: SPE-35373-MS
... incremental recovery mechanism identified. A risk assessment and risk management appraisal is applied 2 by first identifying a range of parameters that can strongly affect the outcome of the project (critical project parameters). A Monte Carlo risk assessment is made of the base case cold and hot water...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Mediterranean Conference and Exhibition, March 27–29, 2019
Paper Number: OMC-2019-0951
... evaluation input data core data risk assessment representativeness quasi-random number geologic modeling artificial intelligence simulation variability geological modeling risk and uncertainty assessment petrophysical uncertainty well logging monte carlo simulation integration accuracy 1...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference, November 15–18, 2021
Paper Number: SPE-207241-MS
... Simulation is an increasingly important part of static modeling workflows risk and uncertainty assessment reserves evaluation convergence risk management reservoir simulation probabilistic original hydrocarbon iteration modeling & simulation upstream oil & gas monte carlo simulation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the ISRM VII Brazilian Symposium on Rock Mechanics - SBMR 2016, October 19–22, 2016
Paper Number: ISRM-SBMR-2016-10
...). Between the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used in geotechnical society: FOSM (first order and second moment), estimate points (Rosenblueth) and Monte Carlo. In this paper is presented a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyzes (FOSM method, Monte...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 4–7, 2009
Paper Number: SPE-124180-MS
... for several decades, present computing systems cannot handle the vast amounts of data generated in a Monte Carlo simulation of a large number of assets. In this study, we discuss a pragmatic approach to developing a risked portfolio of E&P assets. The precision of this approach is assessed through...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the ISRM 3rd Nordic Rock Mechanics Symposium - NRMS 2017, October 11–12, 2017
Paper Number: ISRM-NRMS-2017-023
... worries and identification of serious accidents which may cause dam failure, is very crucial. To assess the probability of internal Erosion, the risk analysis can be utilized. Monte-Carlo simulation is one of the tools which can quantify the risk analysis result due to uncertainties in the Geotechnical...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Middle East Oil and Gas Show and Conference, March 10–13, 2013
Paper Number: SPE-164261-MS
... Abstract Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that probabilistic models of hydrocarbon volumes should correlate the degree of porosity uncertainty to the productive volume of the reservoir. Assessments that fail to model the relationship between productive volume and porosity uncertainty may...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Digital Energy Conference and Exhibition, April 11–12, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107546-MS
..., ROWC (rate of well completion) is introduced. The results of interpretation and statistical analysis are presented as well. drilling operation quantitative risk analysis risk management Upstream Oil & Gas risk and uncertainty assessment Monte Carlo simulation Simulation problem time...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Latin American & Caribbean Petroleum Engineering Conference, April 15–18, 2007
Paper Number: SPE-107736-MS
... ligero derivative tree flow simulation Monte Carlo Technique derivative tree technique risk management risk assessment Simulation simulation run response surface Reservoir Characterization reservoir simulation factorial design numerical flow simulation experimental design risk curve...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/EPA Exploration and Production Environmental Conference, March 7–10, 1993
Paper Number: SPE-25959-MS
... Abstract A general method to determine uncertainty in risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling is presented. This method is compared with a traditional approach to show that its uncertainty is several orders of magnitude less. Part of the approach is to remove...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Canadian International Petroleum Conference, June 12–14, 2007
Paper Number: PETSOC-2007-138
... for reservoir simulators. case 2 monte carlo technique case 1 reservoir simulation application risk assessment response surface derivative tree technique risk curve simulation run error index central composite design risk management upstream oil & gas statistical design multiplier...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, November 10–13, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-172038-MS
... in Saudi is illustrated to verify the validity of proposed method in practice. On the basis of the traditional cost risk analysis by Monte-Carlo simulation, the methodology of analyzing project cost estimates by integrating market-drivers, Monte-Carlo simulation and the Likert scale are proposed and obtain...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE International Oilfield Corrosion Conference and Exhibition, June 18–19, 2018
Paper Number: SPE-190892-MS
... prevents the unnecessary expense of repeat work whilst providing assurance of continued fitness for service. Monte Carlo analysis provided a practical way to manage risks when inspection data was scarce resulting in a picture of the condition of their equipment over time. This assisted with key...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference Asia, November 2–6, 2020
Paper Number: OTC-30378-MS
... on two design strength profiles corresponding to the low and high estimates. risk management class jack-up rig artificial intelligence reserves evaluation drilling operation management monte carlo simulation upstream oil & gas jack-up rig strong clay houlsby spudcan monte carlo model...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the 7th ISRM Congress, September 16–20, 1991
Paper Number: ISRM-7CONGRESS-1991-184
.... This behaviour would tend to result in optimistic stability assessments when using Monte Carlo methods with samples smaller than 250 in size 7 CONCLUSIONS " .The Latin Hypercube Sampling method has been successfully applied to probabilistic rock slope stability analyses. The method was found to represent input...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Annual Caspian Technical Conference and Exhibition, November 1–3, 2017
Paper Number: SPE-189019-MS
... is attributed by distribution type. Distribution of probabilities is the most realistic tool for description of uncertainties of geological and oil field data while risks analysis. Prior to geological model design or assessment of resources by Monte-Carlo technique, the evaluated uncertainties are ranked due...

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