Future Demands on Oil Industry of United States
- Joseph E. Pogue
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- Transactions of the AIME
- Publication Date
- December 1923
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 959 - 984
- 1923. Original copyright American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, Inc. Copyright has expired.
- 7.4 Energy Economics
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In 1920, 531 million barrels of crude petroleum were consumed in the UnitedStates. As imposing as this figure is, the fact that the domestic consumptionof crude petroleum has increased at an average rate of 10 per cent. a year forthe past decade is more striking. Will this rate of increase in demandcontinue? If so, the year 1930 will call for 1260 million barrels of petroleum- a staggering volume. On the other hand, may we expect the demand forpetroleum to grow as rapidly as it did when the automotive industry was havingits most phenomenal expansion? If not, to what extent will the growth of oilrequirements decrease? When and to what degree will the petroleum industrybecome affected by the economic law of diminishing returns? Obviously, thismatter requires careful analysis, especially as both national and industrialplanning must be predicated upon present estimates of the requirements of thefuture. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to project, as closely aspresent limitations of knowledge permit, the course of the demand for petroleumin the United States over the next ten years.
At first, the problem of estimating the future of a demand as complex asthat for petroleum might appear insoluble. Fortunately, however, there areseveral scientific methods of approaching the problem, centering around a studyof rates of industrial growth, which lend considerable hope that therequirements of the immediate future in this field may be approximated withsufficient closeness to have practical value as a basis of action.
Growth of Petroleum Demand
The demand for crude petroleum is the resultant of the demands for theproducts made jointly from this substance - gasoline, kerosene, gas and fueloil, and lubricating oils.
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