Production-Strategy Insights Using Machine Learning: Application for Bakken Shale
- Guofan Luo (University of Houston) | Yao Tian (University of Houston) | Mariia Bychina (University of Houston) | Christine Ehlig-Economides (University of Houston)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering
- Publication Date
- August 2019
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 800 - 816
- 2019.Society of Petroleum Engineers
- Bakken, Machine Learning
- 83 in the last 30 days
- 209 since 2007
- Show more detail
- View rights & permissions
|SPE Member Price:||USD 12.00|
|SPE Non-Member Price:||USD 35.00|
Researchers from both industry and academia have intensively studied tight oil resources in the past decade since the successful development of Bakken Shale and Eagle Ford Shale, and have made tremendous progress. It has been recognized that locating the sweet spots in the regionally pervasive plays is of great significance. However, we are still struggling to determine whether the dominant control on shale-well productivity is geologic or technical. Given certain geological properties, what is the best completion strategy?
Most of the previous studies either analyze the completion data alone or divide the entire play into different data clusters by map coordinates and depth, which might neglect the heterogeneity in thickness and reservoir-quality parameters. In our study, we first conducted stratigraphic and petrophysical analyses, using the regional variation in depth, thickness, porosity, and water saturation to capture the regional heterogeneity in the Bakken Shale petroleum system. We selected approximately 2,000 horizontal wells, targeting the Middle Bakken Formation with detailed completion records and initial production dates during 2013 and 2014. Completion data inputs include normalized stage length (NSL), stage counts, normalized volume of fluid (NVF), and normalized volume of proppant (NVP).
We investigated the relationship between the geological and completion features, and its effect on the first year of production. Then, we built a neural-network model to identify the relationship between the first-year oil production and the selected features. We separated the data into three sets for training, validation, and testing. After we trained the model using the training and validation set, we tested the model to estimate its robustness. Through sensitivity analysis, we demonstrated how the completion parameters combined with geological input would affect the production.
The developed technique provides a method to identify the best well location, understand the effectiveness of the completion strategy, and predict the well production. Although the data used came from wells in the Bakken Shale, the methodology applies in a similar way to other tight oil plays.
|File Size||1 MB||Number of Pages||17|
Baihly, J. D., Altman, R. M., and Aviles, I. 2012. Has the Economic Stage Count Been Reached in the Bakken Shale? Presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Calgary, 24–25 September. SPE-159683-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/159683-MS.
Baruch, E. T., Slatt, R. M., and Marfurt, K. J. 2012. Seismic Stratigraphic Analysis of the Barnett Shale and Ellenburger Unconformity Southwest of the Core Area of the Newark East Field, Fort Worth Basin, Texas. In AAPG Memoir 97: Shale Reservoirs–Giant Resources for the 21st Century, ed. J. A. Breyer, 403–418. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Baskin, D. K. 1997. Atomic H/C Ratio of Kerogen as an Estimate of Thermal Maturity and Organic Matter Conversion. AAPG Bull 81 (9): 1437–1450. https://doi.org/10.1306/3B05BB14-172A-11D7-8645000102C1865D.
Bengio, Y. 2009. Learning Deep Architectures for AI. Found Trend Mach Learn 2 (1): 1–127. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000006.
Bowker, K. A. 2003. Recent Development of the Barnett Shale Play, Forth Worth Basin. West Texas Geol Soc Bull 42 (6): 4–11.
Bowker, K. A. 2007. Barnett Shale Gas Production, Fort Worth Basin: Issues and Discussion. AAPG Bull 91 (4): 523–533. https://doi.org/10.1306/06190606018.
Breiman, L. 2001. Random Forests. Mach Learn 45 (1): 5–32. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324.
Bychina, M., Guk, V., Wolcott, D. et al. 2014. The Systematic Closing of the Performance Gap in Hydraulic Fracturing. Presented at the International Petroleum Technology Conference, Doha, 19–22 January. IPTC-17535-MS. https://doi.org/10.2523/IPTC-17535-MS.
Bychina, M., Luo, G., Liu G. et al. 2018. State of Art for Multiple Transverse Fracture Horizontal Well Design. Hydraul Fract J 5 (1): 53–68.
Chalmers, G. R., Bustin, R. M., and Power, I. M. 2012. Characterization of Gas Shale Pore Systems by Porosimetry, Pycnometry, Surface Area, and Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy/Transmission Electron Microscopy Image Analyses: Examples From the Barnett, Woodford, Haynesville, Marcellus, and Doig Units. AAPG Bull 96 (6): 1099–1119. https://doi.org/10.1306/10171111052.
Chollet, F. 2015. Keras, https://keras.io (accessed May 2019).
Cipolla, C. L., Weng, X., Onda, H. et al. 2011. New Algorithms and Integrated Workflow for Tight Gas and Shale Completions. Presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, 30 October–2 November. SPE-146872-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/146872-MS.
Clarke, P. R., Portis, D. H., Barzola, G. J. et al. 2016. Chapter 5: Assessing Well Performance in a Prolific Liquids-Rich Shale Play—An Eagle Ford Case Study. In AAPG Memoir 110, The Eagle Ford Shale: A Renaissance in US Oil Production, ed. J. A. Breyer, 213–240. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Curtis, J. B. 2002. Fractured Shale-Gas Systems. AAPG Bull 86 (11): 1921–1938. https://doi.org/10.1306/61EEDDBE-173E-11D7-8645000102C1865D.
Curtis,M. E., Ambrose, R. J., and Sondergeld, C. H. 2010. Structural Characterization of Gas Shales on the Micro- and Nano-Scales. Presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources and International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, 19–21 October. SPE-137693-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/137693-MS.
Drillinginfo. 2018. Drillinginfo database, https://info.drillinginfo.com/ (accessed January 2018).
Economides, M., Oligney, R., and Valkó, P. 2002. Unified Fracture Design: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice. Orsa Press.
Grieser, W. V., Shelley, R. F., Johnson, B. J. et al. 2008. Data Analysis of Barnett Shale Completions. SPE J. 13 (3): 366–374. SPE-100674-PA. https://doi.org/10.2118/100674-PA.
Guyon, I. and Elisseeff, A. 2003. An Introduction to Variable and Feature Selection. J Mach Learn Res 3 (3): 1157–1182.
Hamlin, H. S., Smye, K., Dommisse, R. et al. 2017. Geology and Petrophysics of the Bakken Unconventional Petroleum System. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, Austin, Texas, 24–26 July. URTEC-2670679-MS. https://doi.org/10.15530/URTEC-2017-2670679.
Handin, J. and Hager, R. V. Jr. 1957. Experimental Deformation of Sedimentary Rocks Under Confining Pressure: Tests at Room Temperature on Dry Samples. AAPG Bull 41 (1): 1–50. https://doi.org/10.1306/5CEAE5FB-16BB-11D7-8645000102C1865D.
Handin, J. and Hager, R. V. Jr. 1958. Experimental Deformation of Sedimentary Rocks Under Confining Pressure: Tests at High Temperature. AAPG Bull 42 (12): 2892–2934. https://doi.org/10.1306/0BDA5C27-16BD-11D7-8645000102C1865D.
Handin, J., Hager, R. V. Jr., Friedman, M. et al. 1963. Experimental Deformation of Sedimentary Rocks Under Confining Pressure: Pore Pressure Tests. AAPG Bull 47 (5): 717–755. https://doi.org/10.1306/BC743A87-16BE-11D7-8645000102C1865D.
He, S., Ning, Y., Chen, T. et al. 2016. Estimation of Transport Diffusivity of Natural Gas in Organic Matter Using Molecular Dynamics Simulation. Presented at the SPE Low Perm Symposium, Denver, 5–6 May. SPE-180198-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/180198-MS.
Hester, T. C. and Schmoker, J. W. 1985. Selected Physical Properties of the Bakken Formation, North Dakota and Montana Part of the Williston Basin. Report, Oil and Gas Investigation Chart 126, US Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.3133/oc126.
Jarvie, D. M. 2012a. Shale Resource Systems for Oil and Gas: Part 1—Shale-Gas Resource Systems. In AAPG Memoir 97: Shale Reservoirs–Giant Resources for the 21st Century, ed. J. A. Breyer, 69–87. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Jarvie, D. M. 2012b. Shale Resource Systems for Oil and Gas: Part 2—Shale-Oil Resource Systems. In AAPG Memoir 97: Shale Reservoirs–Giant Resources for the 21st Century, ed. J. A. Breyer, 89–119. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Jarvie, D. M., Hill, R. J., and Pollastro, R. M. 2005. Assessment of the Gas Potential and Yields From Shales: The Barnett Shale Model. In Unconventional Energy Resources in the Southern Midcontinent, 2004 Symposium: Oklahoma Geological Survey Circular, ed. B. J. Cardott, Vol. 110, 37–50.
Jin, H. and Sonnenberg, S. A. 2013. Characterization for Source Rock Potential of the Bakken Shales in the Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, Denver, 12–14 August. URTEC-1581243-MS. https://doi.org/10.15530/URTEC-1581243-MS.
Lafollette, R., Holcomb, W. D., and Aragon, J. 2012. Practical Data Mining: Analysis of Barnett Shale Production Results With Emphasis on Well Completion and Fracture Stimulation. Presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference, The Woodlands, Texas, 6–8 February. SPE-152531-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/152531-MS.
LeCun, Y., Bengio, Y., and Hinton, G. 2015. Deep Learning. Nature 521 (May): 436–444. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14539.
LeFever, J. A. 1991. History of Oil Production From the Bakken Formation, North Dakota. In 1991 Guidebook to Geology and Horizontal Drilling of the Bakken Formation, ed. W. B. Hansen, 3–17. Billings, Montana: Montana Geological Society.
LeFever, J. A. 1992. Horizontal Drilling in the Williston Basin, United States and Canada. In Geological Studies Relevant to Horizontal Drilling: Examples From Western North America, ed. J. W. Schmoker and E. B. Coalson. Denver: Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists.
LeFever, J. A. 2008. Structural Contour and Isopach Maps of the Bakken Formation in North Dakota. Report GI-59, North Dakota Geological Survey, Bismarck, North Dakota.
Lolon, E., Hamidieh, K., Weijers, L. et al. 2016. Evaluating the Relationship Between Well Parameters and Production Using Multivariate Statistical Models: A Middle Bakken and Three Forks Case History. Presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference, The Woodlands, Texas, 9–11 February. SPE-179171-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/179171-MS.
Loucks, R. G. and Reed, R. M. 2014. Scanning-Electron-Microscope Petrographic Evidence for Distinguishing Organic-Matter Pores Associated With Depositional Organic Matter vs. Migrated Organic Matter in Mudrocks. GCAGS J. 3: 51–60.
Loucks, R. G., Reed, R. M., Ruppel, S. C. et al. 2009. Morphology, Genesis, and Distribution of Nanometer-Scale Pores in Siliceous Mudstones of the Mississippian Barnett Shale. J Sediment Res 79 (12): 848–861. https://doi.org/10.2110/jsr.2009.092.
Loucks, R. G., Reed, R. M., Ruppel, S. C. et al. 2012. Spectrum of Pore Types and Networks in Mudrocks and a Descriptive Classification for Matrix-Related Mudrock Pores. AAPG Bull 96 (6): 1071–1098. https://doi.org/10.1306/08171111061.
Meinshausen, N. and Bühlmann, P. 2010. Stability Selection. J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol 72 (4): 417–473. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2010.00740.x.
Meissner, F. F. 1978. Petroleum Geology of the Bakken Formation Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana. In The Economic Geology of the Williston Basin: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, ed. D. Rehrig, 207–227. Billings, Montana: Montana Geological Society.
Meissner, F. F. 1991. Petroleum Geology of the Bakken Formation, Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana. In 1991 Guidebook to Geology and Horizontal Drilling of the Bakken Formation, ed. W. B. Hansen, 19–42. Billings, Montana: Montana Geological Society.
Mohaghegh, S. D., Gaskari, R., and Maysami, M. 2017. Shale Analytics: Making Production and Operational Decisions Based on Facts: A Case Study in Marcellus Shale. Presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition, The Woodlands, Texas, 24–26 January. SPE-184822-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/184822-MS.
Montgomery, S. L., Jarvie, D. M., Bowker, K. A. et al. 2005. Mississippian Barnett Shale, Fort Worth Basin, North-Central Texas: Gas-Shale Play With Multi-Trillion Cubic Foot Potential. AAPG Bull 89 (2): 155–175. https://doi.org/10.1306/09170404042.
Newgord, C., Mediani, M., Ouenes, A. et al. 2015. Bakken Well Performance Predicted From Shale Capacity. Presented at the Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, San Antonio, Texas, 20–22 July. URTEC-2166588-MS. https://doi.org/10.15530/URTEC-2015-2166588.
Ning, Y., He, S., Liu, H. et al. 2016. Permeability Prediction Considering Surface Diffusion for Gas Shales by Lattice Boltzmann Simulations on Multi-Scale Reconstructed Digital Rocks. Presented at the International Petroleum Technology Conference, Bangkok, 14–16 November. IPTC-18845-MS. https://doi.org/10.2523/IPTC-18845-MS.
Nordeng, S. H. 2009. The Bakken Petroleum System: An Example of a Continuous Petroleum Accumulation. DMR Newsletter 36 (1): 21–24.
Passey, Q. R., Bohacs, K., Esch, W. L. et al. 2010. From Oil-Prone Source Rock to Gas-Producing Shale Reservoir—Geologic and Petrophysical Characterization of Unconventional Shale Gas Reservoirs. Presented at the International Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition in China, Beijing, 8–10 June. SPE-131350-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/131350-MS.
Pearson, C. M., Griffin, L., Wright, C. A. et al. 2013. Breaking Up is Hard to Do: Creating Hydraulic Fracture Complexity in the Bakken Central Basin. Presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference, The Woodlands, Texas, 4–6 February. SPE-163827-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/163827-MS.
Peters, K. E. and Cassa, M. R. 1994. Applied Source Rock Geochemistry, Part II: Essential Elements. In AAPG Memoir 60: The Petroleum System–From Source to Trap, ed. L. B. Magoon and W. G. Dow, Chap. 5, 93–120. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Pitman, J. K., Price, L. C., and LeFever, J. A. 2001. Diagenesis and Fracture Development in the Bakken Formation, Williston Basin: Implications for Reservoir Quality in the Middle Member. US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1653, US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey, Denver, November 2001.
Pollastro, R. M., Jarvie, D. M., Hill, R. J. et al. 2007. Geologic Framework of the Mississippian Barnett Shale, Barnett-Paleozoic Total Petroleum System, Bend Arch–Fort Worth Basin, Texas. AAPG Bull 91 (4): 405–436. https://doi.org/10.1306/10300606008.
Pollastro, R. M., Roberts, L. N. R., and Cook, T. A. 2011. Geologic Assessment of Technically Recoverable Oil in the Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation. In Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Williston Basin Province of North Dakota, Montana, and South Dakota, US Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-69-W, Chap. 5. Denver: USGS.
Price, L. C., Daws, T., and Pawlewicz, M. 1986. Organic Metamorphism in the Lower Mississippian–Upper Devonian Bakken Shales—Part 1: Rock-Eval Pyrolysis and Vitrinite Reflectance. J Petrol Geol 9 (2): 125–162.
Raschka, S. and Mirjalili, V. 2017. Python Machine Learning: Machine Learning and Deep Learning With Python, scikit-learn, and TensorFlow, second edition. Birmingham, UK: Packt Publishing.
Rickman, R., Mullen, M. J., Petre, J. E. et al. 2008. A Practical Use of Shale Petrophysics for Stimulation Design Optimization: All Shale Plays Are Not Clones of the Barnett Shale. Presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, 21–24 September. SPE-115258-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/115258-MS.
Schieber, J., Lazar, R., Bohacs, K. et al. 2016. An SEM Study of Porosity in the Eagle Ford Shale of Texas—Pore Types and Porosity Distribution in a Depositional and Sequence-Stratigraphic Context. In AAPG Memoir 110, The Eagle Ford Shale: A Renaissance in US Oil Production, ed. J. A. Breyer, 167–186. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Schmoker, J. W. and Hester, T. R. 1983. Organic Carbon in Bakken Formation, United States Portion of the Williston Basin. AAPG Bull 67 (12): 2165–2174.
Schuetter, J., Mishra, S., Zhong, M. et al. 2015. Data Analytics for Production Optimization in Unconventional Reservoirs. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, San Antonio, Texas, 20–22 July 2015. URTEC-2167005-MS. https://doi.org/10.15530/URTEC-2015-2167005.
Shelley, R. F., Guliyev, N., and Nejad, A. 2012. A Novel Method to Optimize Horizontal Bakken Completions in a Factory Mode Development Program. Presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, Texas, 8–10 October. SPE-159696-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/159696-MS.
Smith, M. G. and Bustin, R. M. 1996. Lithofacies and Paleoenvironments of the Upper Devonian and Lower Mississippian Bakken Formation, Williston Basin. Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology 44 (3): 495–507.
Smith, M. G. and Bustin, R. M. 2000. Late Devonian and Early Mississippian Bakken and Exshaw Black Shale Source Rocks, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin: A Sequence Stratigraphic Interpretation. AAPG Bull 84 (7): 940–960. https://doi.org/10.1306/A9673B76-1738-11D7-8645000102C1865D.
Spears, R. W. and Jackson, S. L. 2009. Development of a Predictive Tool for Estimating Well Performance in Horizontal Shale Gas Wells in the Barnett Shale, North Texas, USA. Petrophysics 50 (1): 19–31. SPWLA-2009-v50n1a1.
Sperr, J. T. 1991. Exploration Models for Bakken Reservoirs: Williston Basin, North Dakota and Montana. In 1991 Guidebook to Geology and Horizontal Drilling of the Bakken Formation, ed. W. B. Hansen, 143–149. Billings, Montana: Montana Geological Society.
Stoneburner, R. 2010. The Haynesville Shale: What We Have Learned in the First Two Years. SIPES Quarterly 46 (3; February).
Theloy, C. and Sonnenberg, S. 2013. New Insights Into the Bakken Play: What Factors Control Production. Presented at the AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 19–22 May.
Tian, Y., Ayers, W. B., Sang, H. et al. 2017. Quantitative Evaluation of Key Geological Controls on Regional Eagle Ford Shale Production Using Spatial Statistics. Presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference, Calgary, 15–16 February. SPE-185025-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/185025-MS.
Tissot, B. P. and Welte, D. H. 1984. Petroleum Formation and Occurrence. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
Wang, F. P. and Gale, J. F. W. 2009. Screening Criteria for Shale-Gas Systems. Gulf Coast Assoc Geol Soc Trans 59: 779–793.
Wang, F. P. and Hammes, U. 2010. Effects of Petrophysical Factors on Haynesville Fluid Flow and Production. World Oil 231 (6): 63–66.
Wang, F. P., Hammes, U., and Li, Q. 2013a. Overview of Haynesville Shale Properties and Production. In AAPG Memoir 105: Geology of the Haynesville Gas Shale in East Texas and West Louisiana, ed. U. Hammes and J. Gale, Chap. 8, 155–177. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Wang, F. P., Hammes, U., Reed, R. et al. 2013b. Petrophysical and Mechanical Properties of Organic-Rich Shales and Their Influences on Fluid Flow. In Memoir 103: Critical Assessment of Shale Resource Plays, ed. J. Chatellier and D. Jarvie, Chap. 10, 167–186. Tulsa: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Wang, S. and Chen, S. 2016. A Comprehensive Evaluation of Well Completion and Production Performance in Bakken Shale Using Data-Driven Approaches. Presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Hydraulic Fracturing Conference, Beijing, 24–26 August. SPE-181803-MS. https://doi.org/10.2118/181803-MS.
Webster, R. L. 1984. Petroleum Source Rocks and Stratigraphy of the Bakken Formation in North Dakota. In Hydrocarbon Source Rocks of the Greater Rocky Mountain Region, ed. J. Woodward, F. F. Meissner, and J. L. Clayton, 57–81. Denver: Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists.
Wells, F. 2004. A New Method to Help Identify Unconventional Targets for Exploration and Development Through Integrative Analysis of Clastic Rock Property Fields. Houston Geol Soc Bull 47 (2): 35–49.
Yan, C., Luo, G., and Ehlig-Economides, C. A. 2015. Systematic Study of Bakken Well Performance Over Three Well-Completion-Design Eras. J Can Pet Technol 54 (2): 95–106. SPE-171566-PA. https://doi.org/10.2118/171566-PA.
Yang, H. and Moody, J. 1999. Feature Selection Based on Joint Mutual Information. Oral presentation given at the International ICSC Symposium on Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis, Rochester, New York, 22–25 June.
Zhao, H., Givens, N. B., and Curtis, B. 2007. Thermal Maturity of the Barnett Shale Determined From Well-Log Analysis. AAPG Bulletin 91 (4): 535–549. https://doi.org/10.1306/10270606060.