Integrated Field-Scale Production and Economic Evaluation Under Subsurface Uncertainty for the Pattern-Driven Development of Unconventional Resources With Analytical Superposition
- Guohua Gao (Shell Global Solutions (US) Inc.) | Jeroen Vink (Shell Global Solutions (US) Inc.) | Faruk Omer Alpak (Shell International E & P Inc.)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering
- Publication Date
- January 2016
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 118 - 129
- 2015.Society of Petroleum Engineers
- uncertainty quantification, economic evaluation, in-situ upgrading process, field-scale development, unconventional EOR
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- 295 since 2007
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The in-situ upgrading process (IUP) is a thermal-recovery technique that relies on a pattern-based development process, a complicated physical process that involves thermal and mass transfer in porous media, which renders full field-scale reservoir simulations impractical. Although it is feasible to quantify the impact of subsurface uncertainties on recovery for small-scale sector models with experimental design (ED), it is still a very challenging problem to quantify their impact on field-scale quantities. Straightforward upscaling to field scale does not work because such conventional superposition-based methods do not capture the effects of spatial variability in rock and fluid properties and the time delay in sequential pattern development. In this paper, we show that, under certain mild assumptions, an analytical superposition formulation can be developed that propagates the uncertainties of production forecasts and economic evaluations generated from a sector model to full field-scale quantities. One can simplify this formulation further so that the variance of a field-scale quantity is analytically expressed as the variance of the same single-pattern quantity multiplied by a (computable) scaleup factor. This makes it possible to implement a practical uncertainty quantification work flow in which single-pattern results are upscaled to accurate full field results with reliable uncertainty ranges, without the need for full field-scale simulations. We apply the proposed novel superposition and uncertaintypropagation method to a multipattern IUP development, and demonstrate that this work flow produces reliable results for field-scale production and economics as well as realistic uncertainty ranges. Moreover, these results indicate that the scaleup factor for singlepattern results can accurately capture the impact of spatial correlations of subsurface uncertainties, the size of the field-scale model, the time-delay in pattern development, and the discount rate. Uncertainty quantification of field-scale production and economics is a key factor for the successful development of unconventional resources such as extraheavy oil and oil shale with significant rewards in terms of risk management and project profitability. With minor modifications, the proposed method can also be applied to other pattern-driven processes such as the in-situ conversion process (ICP) and steam-assisted gravity drainage.
|File Size||530 KB||Number of Pages||12|
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