Probabilistic Forecasting and Model Validation for the First-Eocene Large-Scale Pilot Steamflood, Partitioned Zone, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
- William T. Osterloh (Chevron Energy Technology Company) | Don S. Mims (Chevron Energy Technology Company) | William S. Meddaugh (Chevron Global Upstream and Gas)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering
- Publication Date
- January 2013
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 97 - 116
- 2013. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 4.3.4 Scale, 5.4.6 Thermal Methods, 5.1.5 Geologic Modeling, 5.7.4 Probabilistic Methods, 5.8.7 Carbonate Reservoir
- 2 in the last 30 days
- 800 since 2007
- Show more detail
- View rights & permissions
|SPE Member Price:||USD 12.00|
|SPE Non-Member Price:||USD 35.00|
The First-Eocene heavy-oil reservoir (1E) in the Wafra field is a candidate for steamflooding because of its world-class resource base and low-estimated primary recovery. However, industry has little experience in steamflooding carbonate reservoirs, which has prompted the staging of several 1E steamflooding tests, the latest of which is the large-scale pilot (LSP) started in 2009. To assist in facilities design, to help understand expected performance in a very heterogeneous reservoir, and to provide input to early-decision analyses, numerical thermal simulation was used to generate probabilistic forecasts. When adequate pilot history was available, the model was validated with probabilistic methods. The LSP model contained 1.5 million cells, which allowed the maintenance of adequate resolution and proper boundary conditions in the pilot area. Parallel computation enabled a probabilistic workflow to be implemented with this large thermal model. In this paper, we highlight the methodologies and inputs used to generate the probabilistic forecasts and validate the model. Major results of this work include the following: In contrast to many greenfield forecasts, the LSP forecasts were conservative, likely because of the unique aspects of the forecasting methodology, proper selection of uncertainty ranges, and the relatively high density of input data for model construction; wide variations in production metrics were forecast, indicative of a highly heterogeneous reservoir; results indicated that the validated model adequately captured the global or statistical pilot heterogeneity, enabling proper capture of steamflood flow/drainage mechanisms; and despite this heterogeneity, forecast oil-recovery levels were comparable with those observed in steamfloods in sandstone reservoirs.
|File Size||6 MB||Number of Pages||20|
Bachtel, S., Toomey, N., Pollitt, D.A. et al. 2011. ReservoirCharacterization of the Paleocene/Eocene First Eocene Dolomite Reservoir atWafra Field, Partitioned Zone (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait). Paper presented at theAAPG Annual Meeting, Houston, Texas, 10-13 April.
Bahonar, M., Ataei, A. Masoudi, R. et al. 2007. Evaluation of SteamInjection in a Fractured Heavy-Oil Carbonate Reservoir in Iran. Paper SPE105299 presented at the SPE Middle East Oil and Gas Show and Conference,Manama, Bahrain, 11-14 March. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/105299-MS.
Barge, D., Al-Yami, F., Uphold, D. et al. 2009.Steamflood Piloting the WafraField Eocene Reservoir in the Partitioned Neutral Zone, Between Saudi Arabiaand Kuwait. Paper SPE 120205 presented at the SPE Middle East Oil and Gas Showand Conference, Bahrain, 15-18 March. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/120205-MS.
Barton, R.R., Chen, V.C.P., Meckesheimer, M. et al. 2006. A Review onDesign, Modeling, and Applications of Computer Experiments. IIE Trans. 38 (4): 273-291. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/07408170500232495.
Castellini, A., Yeten, B., Singh, U. et al. 2006. History Matching andUncertainty Quantification Assisted by Global Optimization Techniques. Paperpresented at the European Association of Geologists and Engineers (EAGE) andConference on the Mathematics of Oil Recovery, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 4-7September.
Choudhary, M.K., Yoon, S., and Ludvigsen, B.E. 2007. Application of GlobalOptimization Methods for History Matching and Probabilistic ForecastingCaseStudies. Paper SPE 105208 presented at the SPE Middle East Oil and Gas Show andConference, Bahrain, 11-14 March. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/105208-MS.
Cullick, A.S., Johnson, D., and Shi, G. 2006. Improved and More-RapidHistory Matching With a Nonlinear Proxy and Global Optimization. Paper SPE101933 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, SanAntonio, Texas, 24-27 September. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/101933-MS.
Das, S. 2007. Application of Thermal Processes in Heavy-Oil CarbonateReservoirs. Paper SPE 105392 presented at the SPE Middle East Oil and Gas Showand Conference, Bahrain, 11-14 March. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/105392-MS.
Derringer, G. and Suich, R. 1980. Simultaneous Optimization of SeveralResponse Variables. J. Quality Tech. 12 (4): 214-219.
Dvoretsky, R., Saller, A., Bachtel, S. et al. 2012. Diagenetic Controls onReservoir Characteristics of the Second Eocene Reservoir, Wafra Field, PZ.Paper presented at the AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Long Beach,California, 22-25 April.
Hale, J.L. 2002. Steamflood Potential for Heavy-Oil Carbonate Reservoirs inthe Partitioned Neutral Zone of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Paper KIPCE-A11presented at the Kuwait International Petroleum Conference and Exhibition,Kuwait, 2-5 February.
Harrington, J. 1965. The Desirability Function. Industrial QualityControl 21: 494-498.
Landa, J.L., Kalia, R.K., Nakano, A. et al. 2005. History Match andAssociated Forecast Uncertainty Analysis--Practical Approaches Using ClusterComputing. Paper IPTC 10751 presented at the International Petroleum TechnologyConference, Doha, Qatar, 21-23 November. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/10751-MS.
Liu, L. 2005. Could Enough Samples Be More Important Than Better Designs forComputer Experiments? ANSS 2005 Proceedings of the 38th AnnualSimulation Symposium, Spring Simulation Multiconference, San Diego, California,2-8 April. 107-115, Washington, DC: IEEE Computer Society. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ANSS.2005.17.
Manrique, E.J., Muci, V.E., and Gurfinkel, M.E 2007. EOR Field Experiencesin Carbonate Reservoirs in the United States. SPE Res Eval & Eng 10 (6): 667-686. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/100063-PA.
McKay, M.D., Conover, W.J., and Beckman, R.J. 1979. A Comparison of ThreeMethods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output froma Computer Code. Technometrics 21 (2): 239-245. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1268522.
Meddaugh, W.S., Champenoy, N. Osterloh, W.T. et al. 2011a. ReservoirForecast Optimism—Impact of Geostatistics, Reservoir Modeling, Heterogeneity,and Uncertainty. Paper SPE 145721 presented at the SPE Annual TechnicalConference and Exhibition, Denver, Colorado, 30 October-2 November. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/145721-MS.
Meddaugh, W.S., Dull, D., Garber, R.A. et al. 2007. The Wafra First EoceneReservoir Partitioned Neutral Zone (PNZ), Saudi Arabia and Kuwait: Geology,Stratigraphy, and Static Modeling. Paper SPE 105087 presented at the SPE MiddleEast Oil and Gas Show and Conference, Kingdom of Bahrain, 11-14 March. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/105087-MS.
Meddaugh, W.S., Dull, D., Griest, S.D. et al. 2005a. Stochastic ReservoirModel for the First Eocene Reservoir, Wafra Field, Partitioned Neutral Zone(PNZ).Geostatistics Banff 2004 (Quantitative Geology and Geostatisticsseries—Vol. 14), ed. O. Leuangthong and C.V. Deutsch, Vol. 2, 757-762. TheNetherlands: Springer. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-3610-1_78.
Meddaugh, W.S., Griest, S.D., and Gross, S. J. 2005b. Application of Designof Experiments to Expedite Probabilistic Assessment of Reservoir HydrocarbonVolumes (OOIP). Geostatistics Banff 2004 (Quantitative Geology andGeostatistics—Vol. 14), ed. O. Leuangthong and C.V. Deutsch, Vol. 2, 751-756.The Netherlands: Springer. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-3610-1_77.
Meddaugh, W.S., Osterloh, W., Hoadley, S.F. et al. 2011b. Impact ofReservoir Heterogeneity on Steamflooding, Wafra First Eocene Reservoir,Partitioned Zone (PZ), Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Paper SPE 150606 presented atthe SPE Heavy Oil Conference and Exhibition, Kuwait City, Kuwait, 12-14December. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/150606-MS.
Meddaugh, W.S., Osterloh, W.T., and Tang, H. 2010. Semivariogram Parametersfor Carbonate Reservoirs--Geological Variability and Potential Impact onDynamic Modeling. Paper presented at the EAGE Annual Meeting in Barcelona,Spain, June.
Montgomery, P., Ratcliffe, K., Wray, D. et al. 2011. Application of WholeRock Inorganic Geochemistry to Stratigraphic Understanding of Mixed CarbonateEvaporite Reservoirs, an Example from the First Eocene of the Wafra Field, PZ.Paper presented at the AAPG Annual Conference and Exhibition, Houston, Texas,10-13 April.
Nakamura, S. Sarma, H.K., and Umucu, T. 1995. A Critical Evaluation of aSteamflood Pilot in a Deep Heavy Carbonate Reservoir in Ikiztepe Field, Turkey.Paper SPE 30727 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference andExhibition, Dallas, Texas, 22-25 October. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/30727-MS.
NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statistical Methods. 2003. http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/pri/section5/pri5322.htm.
Osterloh, W.T. 2008. Use of Multiple-Response Optimization to AssistReservoir Simulation Probabilistic Forecasting and History Matching. Paper SPE116196 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver,Colorado, 21-24 September. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/116196-MS.
Patience, R., Denny, T., Johansen, S. et al. 2011. Large vertical variationsin fluid composition and properties in a biodegraded heavy-oil column (Wafrafield) from geochemical analysis. Internal Report, Chevron.
Penney, R., Baqi Al Lawati, S., Hinai, R. et al. 2007. First Full-FieldSteam Injection in a Fractured Carbonate at Qarn Alam, Oman. Paper SPE 105406presented at the SPE Middle East Oil and Gas Show and Conference, Bahrain,11-14 March. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/105406-MS.
Playton, M.E., Heesakkers, V., Flodin, E. et al. 2011. FractureCharacterization of the 1st Eocene, Wafra Field, Kuwait-Saudi Arabia. Paperpresented at the AAPG Annual Conference and Exhibition, Houston, Texas, 10-13April.
Pollitt, D.A. and Saller, A.H. 2011. Sedimentology and Diagenesis of aPaleocene-Eocene Pervasively Dolomitized Epeiric Carbonate Ramp; the 1st EoceneReservoir, Wafra Field, Partitioned Zone, Kuwait. Paper presented at the AAPGAnnual Meeting, Houston, Texas, April.
Rodriguez, A.A., Klie, H., and Wheeler, M.F. 2007. Assessing MultipleResolution Scales in History Matching With Metamodels. Paper presented at theSPE Reservoir Simulation Symposium, Houston, Texas, 26-28 February. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/105824-MS.
Rowan, D.E., Patience, R, Champenoy, N. et al. 2012. Significant Biologicand Hydrodynamic Control on Reservoir Oil Properties and Resultant ReservoirGeometry in the Wafra, First Eocene Reservoir, Partitioned Zone, Saudi Arabia,and Kuwait, AAPG, Long Beach, California, April.
Sacks, J., Schiller, S.B., and Welch, W.J. 1989a. Designs for ComputerExperiments. Technometrics 31 (1): 41-47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1989.10488474.
Sacks, J., Welch, W.J., Mitchell, T.J. et al. 1989b. Design and Analysis ofComputer Experiments. Statistical Sci. 4: 409-423.
Schaff, T., Coureaud, B., and Labat, N. 2008. Using Experimental Designs,Assisted History Matching Tools and Bayesian Framework to Get ProbabilisticProduction Forecasts. Paper SPE 113498 presented at the SPE Europec/EAGE AnnualConference and Exhibition, Rome, Italy, 9-12 June. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/113496-MS.
Simpson, T.W., Peplinski, J., Kock, P.N. et al. 2001. Metamodels forComputer-based Engineering Design: Survey and Recommendations. Engineeringwith Computers 17 (2): 129-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/PL00007198.
Slotte, P.A. and Smorgrav, E. 2008. Response Surface Methodology Approachfor History Matching and Uncertainty Assessment of Reservoir Simulation Models.Paper presented at the 2008 Europec/EAGE Conference and Exhibition, Rome,Italy, 9-12 June. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/113390-MS.
Welch, W.J., Buck, R.J., Sacks, J. et al. 1992. Screening, Predicting, andComputer Experiments. Technometrics 34 (1): 15.
Western, A.W. and Bloschl, G. 1999. On the Spatial Scaling of Soil Moisture.J. Hydrol. 217 (3-4): 203-224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00232-7.