A New Look at Wellbore-Collision Probability
- Andrew G. Brooks (Baker Hughes)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Drilling & Completion
- Publication Date
- June 2010
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 223 - 229
- 2010. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 1.12.1 Measurement While Drilling, 1.6 Drilling Operations, 6.1 HSSE & Social Responsibility Management, 4.1.5 Processing Equipment, 1.6.6 Directional Drilling, 4.3.4 Scale, 4.1.2 Separation and Treating
- 0 in the last 30 days
- 918 since 2007
- Show more detail
- View rights & permissions
|SPE Member Price:||USD 12.00|
|SPE Non-Member Price:||USD 35.00|
Given the potentially catastrophic human and environmental results of an unplanned well collision, a meaningful estimate of the probability of wellbore intersections provides a valuable risk-management tool. A number of estimation techniques are currently in use in the industry; however, all of these have limitations that may not be clearly understood. For example, many computations currently in use fail when the two wells are parallel; they ignore the fact that the drilled well may have reached its current location without collision, or they return an identical result regardless of whether the drilling well is thought to be approaching or departing from the existing well.
A rational approach to the problem begins by clearly defining the probability to be estimated. This paper presents a method to ascertain the probability that a particular interval of the well being drilled might intersect an existing adjacent wellbore. An overall collision probability can then be obtained by combining the probabilities associated with successive intervals along the reference well. The estimates of probability are based on knowledge of the surveyed well paths and their survey uncertainties, expressed in the form of position covariance matrices.
A body of relevant research exists in the field of astrodynamics concerned with estimating the risk of collision between orbiting satellites. This paper draws on previous work from both the oil field and aerospace in developing a more rigorous assessment of collision probability, overcoming the limitation of previous methods. Examples demonstrate that the new method agrees with analytic results for both parallel and nonparallel well paths in simple cases where both wells are straight in the region of interest.
|File Size||494 KB||Number of Pages||7|
Alfano, S. 2003. Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum ConjunctionProbability. Paper AAS 03-548 presented at the AAS/AIAA AstrodynamicsSpecialists Conference, Big Sky, Montana, USA, 3-7 August.
Alfano, S. 2005. A Numerical Implementation of Spherical Object CollisionProbability. Journal of the Astronautical Sciences 53 (1):103-109.
Alfano, S. 2006a. Addressing Nonlinear Relative Motion for SpacecraftCollision Probability. Paper AIAA-2006-6760 presented at the AIAA/AASAstrodynamics Specialists Conference, Keystone, Colorado, USA, 21-24August.
Alfano, S. 2006b. SatelliteCollision Probability Enhancements. Journal of Guidance, Control, andDynamics 29 (3): 588-592. doi:10.2514/1.15523.
Alfano, S. 2007. Review of Conjunction Probability Methods for Short-termEncounters. Paper AAS-07-148 presented at the AAS/AIAA Space Flight MechanicsMeeting, Sedona, Arizona, USA, 28 January-1 February.
Alfano, S. 2008. Method for Determining Maximum Conjunction Probability ofRectangular-Shaped Objects. US Patent No. 7,383,153.
Brooks, A.G. and Wilson, H. 1996. An Improved Method for ComputingWellbore Position Uncertainty and its Application to Collision and TargetIntersection Probability. Paper SPE 36863 presented at the EuropeanPetroleum Conference, Milan, Italy, 22-24 October. doi: 10.2118/36863-MS.
Chan, F.K. 2008. Spacecraft Collision Probability. El Segundo,California: The Aerospace Press/AIAA.
Ekseth, R., Kovalenko, K., Weston, J.L., Torkildsen, T., Nyrnes, E., Brooks,A., and Wilson, H. 2006. TheReliability Problem Related to Directional Survey Data. Paper SPE 103734presented at the IADC/SPE Asia Pacific Drilling Technology Conference andExhibition, Bangkok, Thailand, 13-15 November. doi: 10.2118/103734-MS.
Ekseth, R., Torkildsen, T., Brooks, A., Weston, J., Nyrnes, E., Wilson, H.,and Kovalenko, K. 2007. High-Integrity Wellbore Surveys:Methods for Eliminating Gross Errors. Paper SPE 105558 presented at theSPE/IADC Drilling Conference, Amsterdam, 20-22 February. doi:10.2118/105558-MS.
McKinley, D.P. 2006. Development of a Nonlinear Probability of CollisionTool for the Earth Observing System. Paper AIAA-2006-6295 presented at theAIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Keystone, Colorado, USA, 21-24August.
McNair, G.A., Lance, S.J., Codling, J., and Watson, R. 2005. Implementation of a New Risk BasedWell Collision Avoidance Method. Paper SPE 92554 presented at the SPE/IADCDrilling Conference, Amsterdam, 23-25 February. doi: 10.2118/92554-MS.
Patera, R.P. 2002a. Method forCalculating Collision Probability Between a Satellite and a Space Tether.Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics 25 (5): 940-945.doi:10.2514/2.4967.
Patera, R.P. 2002b. Satellite Collision Probability for Non-Linear RelativeMotion. Paper AIAA-2002-4632 presented at the AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics SpecialistConference and Exhibit, Monterey, California, USA, 5-8 August.
Patera, R.P. 2006. CollisionProbability for Larger Bodies Having Nonlinear Relative Motion. Journalof Guidance, Control, and Dynamics 29 (6): 1468-1472.doi:10.2514/1.23509.
Poedjono, B., Akinniranye, G., Conran, G., and Phillips, W. 2007. Minimizing the Risk of WellCollisions in Land and Offshore Drilling. Paper SPE 108279 presented at theSPE/IADC Middle East Drilling and Technology Conference and Exhibition, Cairo,22-24 October. doi: 10.2118/108279-MS.
Roper, D.J. and Henly, A.G. 1996. A Process for Directional Drilling.International Patent (PCT) No. WO/1996/35859.
Shoemake, K. 1985. Animating rotation withquaternion curves. ACM SIGGRAPH Computer Graphics 19(3): 245-254. doi:10.1145/325165.325242.
Thorogood, J.L., Hogg, T.W., and Williamson, H.S. 1991. Application of RiskAnalysis Methods to Subsurface Well Collisions (Supplement to SPE 23941). PaperSPE 23942 available from SPE, Richardson, Texas.
Thorogood, J.L., Tourney, F.G., Crawford, F.K., and Woo, G. 1990. Quantitative Risk Assessment ofSubsurface Well Collisions. Paper SPE 20908 presented at the EuropeanPetroleum Conference, The Hague, 21-24 October. doi: 10.2118/20908-MS.
Torkildsen, T., Håvardstein, S.T., Weston, J., and Ekseth, R. 2008. Prediction of Wellbore PositionAccuracy When Surveyed with Gyroscopic Tools. SPE Drill & Compl 23 (1): 5-12. SPE-90408-PA. doi: 10.2118/90408-PA.
Tsao, Y., Dawson, C.R., and Ure, D.W. 1999. Well Collision Avoidance. USPatent No. 5,901,795.
Williamson, H.S. 1998. TowardsRisk-Based Well Separation Rules. SPE Drill & Compl 13 (1): 47-51. SPE-36484-PA. doi: 10.2118/36484-PA.
Williamson, H.S. 2000. AccuracyPrediction for Directional Measurement While Drilling. SPE Drill &Compl 15 (4): 221-233. SPE-67616-PA. doi:10.2118/67616-PA.
Woodburn, J. and Tangyin, S. 2002. Position Covariance Visualization. PaperAIAA-2002-4985 presented at the AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conferenceand Exhibit, Monterey, California, 5-8 August.