Large-scale numerical simulation is being enabled by utilizing high performance computing. A socially important target is the estimation of earthquake hazard and disaster. Integrated Earthquake Simulation is being developed to this end. This simulation combines the ground motion simulation and the urban are seismic response simulation. A parallel finite element method has been developed so that an analysis model of a few ten trillion degree-of-freedoms can be solved. An analysis model is automatically constructed for an urban area using available data resources.
Systems have been developed for the estimation of earthquake hazard and disaster; as shown in Figure 1, the methodology of the estimation is being shifted from the empirical to the simulation (Climellaro et al. 2014, Sahin et al. 2016, Lu & Guan, 2017, Hori 2018). They share the following two elements: 1) an empirical attenuation equation for ground motion; and 2) fragility curves for structure damage. These elements provide a unique solution for the estimation of earthquake hazard and disaster in an urban area of a few kilometers in which more than ten thousand structures are located.
There are new technologies that could be an alternative of the two elements. Numerical analysis of earthquake wave propagation is used for the estimation of ground motion distribution (Bao et al. 1996). Many numerical analysis methods are available for structural seismic responses analysis.
To apply these alternatives to the estimation of earthquake hazard and disaster, we need to enhance them with high performic computing (HPC) capability. For instance, required is a finite element method (FEM) that can solve an analysis model of a few billion of degree-of-freedom (DOF) for a target crust structure or a target ground structure (Quinay et al. 2013, Agata et al. 2016). Also, required is an automated model construction of a suitable analysis model for structures the number of which is of the order of 100,000 or 1,000,000.
