LNG Market - Passing Trend or Effective Solution During Energy Transition - Global Market Forecast for 2020-2030
- Piotr Wojciech Kiebzak (Shell Polska / Shell Poland) | Filip Krzysztof Czerniawski (Warsaw School of Economics)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Europec featured at 82nd EAGE Conference and Exhibition, 8-11 December, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Publication Date
- Document Type
- Conference Paper
- 2020. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 4.6.2 Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), 4.6 Natural Gas Conversion and Storage, 4 Facilities Design, Construction and Operation, 6.5.1 Air Emissions, 4.6 Natural Gas
- LNG, Energy Transition, Market forecast
- 18 in the last 30 days
- 20 since 2007
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LNG shipments are nothing new in the face of technology. The first tanker shipment of LNG took place from Lake Charles, LA bound for Canvey Island in the UK in 1958 aboard the experimental vessel, the Methane Pioneer. So, why do people focus on this subject so much since mid 2000's? One of the key factors is technology, that reduced costs of LNG trades. More and more countries see that as a chance to diversify their imports. In 2023 Poland wants to cover over 35% of annual consumption with 7,5 bln cubic meters in LNG shipments. With this strategy there is a big chance for Poland to stop being dependent to Russia in 2023. Main forces that drive the interest for LNG shipments are:
The growing concern for traditional supplies in the face of growing consumption,
The effects of technology on cost reduction making previously uneconomic trades attractive,
Environmental concerns, in some countries gas will replace coal in energy mix,
Increasing liquidity in the global gas market,
LNG trade gives new opportunities for both seller and buyer. It enables importing markets to shift trading directions thus gain energy independence as well as avoid supply shortages.
Liberalization of market - influencing changes in contracts align with spot transactions drain the prices, making LNG even more attractive. On the other hand, the sellers experience completely new trading opportunities. Companies are able to engage in markets that were previously unavailable and escape adverse stockpile abundance.
Aim of the research is to identify major trends in LNG industry. Forecast main course and future role of LNG and natural gas in the energy mix. Model global supply and demand 2020 - 2030. Analysis also covers incoming investments and check their potential. Research based on the available resources from GLE investment database and similar resources from other regions. Data broaden by other documents from energy companies and local statistic ministries. Model with trusted available data adjusted by current news and energy trends in Europe and in global gas industry.
LNG market is expected to grow at around 1.3% annually. Global demand could increase from its current level of about 406 million tons per annum to 430 MTPA in 2025. For now natural gas is supported by policies to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emission and it will partly replace coal in energy mix in European countries. Today's challenge is to create liberal gas market and LNG is the answer on how to connect american, arab and european gas markets.
|File Size||764 KB||Number of Pages||15|
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