Application of Probabilistic and Deterministic Methods for Consistent Reserves and Resources Estimation and Reporting
- Carolina Coll (International Finance Corporation)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Europec featured at 81st EAGE Conference and Exhibition, 3-6 June, London, England, UK
- Publication Date
- Document Type
- Conference Paper
- 2019. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- Deterministic, Probabilistic, Reserves, Resources, Global Optimization Methods
- 34 in the last 30 days
- 34 since 2007
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Probabilistic and deterministic methods for reserves and resources evaluation are commonly used in isolation and often considered mutually exclusive. Subsurface uncertainties are critical factors impacting projects and reserves/resources especially in projects/areas where large sums of capital investment are required. Probabilistic methods allow a rigorous use of information on the ranges of uncertainty on key reservoir parameters like porosity, water saturation, permeability aquifer size for reserves estimation. A key output of probabilistic methods is the confidence levels associated with the reserves. Deterministic methods can't provide confidence levels associated with reserves and resources assessments reason why with its successful application is often relaying on the expert knowledge of the evaluator and the strict use of reserves or resources definitions. Technological advances in computing in the last decades have played a key role in advancing computationally intensive probabilistic methodologies including artificial intelligence. These advances have allowed integrated teams to perform studies using sophisticated workflows in feasible timeframes.
In this paper a detailed analysis of the different probabilistic methods is presented with a review of the level of regulatory compliance with the SEC1 and other industry guidelines like SPE PRMS2 that each of the different methods have. A group of workflows using a combination of these methods is also analysed.
|File Size||1 MB||Number of Pages||16|
M. K. Choudhary,SPE, and S. Soon,SPE Chevron Energy technology Co., and B.E. Ludvigsen,Scandpower PT.: "Application of Global Optimization Methods in History Matching and Probabilistic Forecasting- Case Studies" paper SPE105208 presented at the 15th SPE Middel East Oil & Gas show and Conference, Bahrain 11-14 March 2007.
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