Causes Analysis of Ship Collision Accidents Using Bayesian Network
- Yubo Jia (Wuhan University of Technology) | Yuan Zhuang (Wuhan University of Technology) | Feixiang Wang (Wuhan University of Technology) | Pengfei Lyu (Wuhan University of Technology)
- Document ID
- International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
- The 28th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, 10-15 June, Sapporo, Japan
- Publication Date
- Document Type
- Conference Paper
- 2018. International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
- causes analysis, fault tree, accidents causes, collision probability, collision accidents, marine safety, Bayesian network
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- 25 since 2007
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Collision is the main type of marine accident. This paper presents an approach by mapping fault tree (FT) into Bayesian network (BN) to analyze the causes of collision. The model accurately provides measures to prevent collision accidents by calculating the probability of collision and further analyzing the causes of collision accidents based on their relationships in BNs. Besides, proper safety management measures to authorities, companies, or crews can be established to lower the occurrence of collision accidents.
Marine accidents, meaning damage to a ship or facilities other than a ship related to the operations of a ship or death or injury of the people concerned with the construction, equipment or operation of a ship, include collision, grounding, stranding, contact, wash damage, fire/explosion, wind disaster, sinking, operational pollution accident and others, according to Maritime Safety Administration of China (MSA). Marine accidents result in injury, fatality, pollution and costs billions of dollars every year. For example, in 2014, a total number of 260 marine traffic accidents of transportation ships happened, resulting in 247 fatalities, 141 ships sank and direct economic loss of approximately $42 million (MSA, 2014). In Canada, there were 301 marine accidents, 12 fatalities and 46 serious injuries reported in 2015 (TSB, 2015).
Collision, which means that any accident involving two or more vessels, even without actual contact taking place, can result in loss or damage (CMI, 1987), is one of the most common type of marine accidents. According to Japan Transport Safety Board (JTSB, 2016), there were total 798 marine accidents, in which the number of collision was 242 (30.3%). In Canada, the most frequent type of marine accidents in 2014 was collision (35%) (TSB, 2015). In 2015, 1057 marine accidents (casualties and incidents) to UK vessels or in UK coastal waters were reported, the number of merchant vessels in casualties was 229, including 88 casualties because of collisions (MAIB, 2016). According to Özkan et al. (2015), collision in oil tanker caused economic loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%).
Therefore, significant research efforts are strongly needed to explore various contributing factors to collision, such as human factors (e.g. improper on duty, improper lookout, fatigue, disobey navigational rules, disobey good seamanship, improper routing design, etc.), shipping equipment factors (e.g. engine failure, steering engine failure, navigational aids failure, etc.) and environment factors (e.g. visibility, traffic density, wind, and current, etc.), to investigate their impacts on collision occurrences and to develop effective countermeasures to reduce collisions and severities.
|File Size||990 KB||Number of Pages||10|