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When it comes to reservoir models, the logic goes like this: “Would you believe a model’s forecast of the reservoir’s behavior in the future if it fails to match the production history of the reservoir in the past?” Answering this question should be quite easy: “No.” If a reservoir model fails to match the production history, it will enjoy little or no credibility in forecasting production into the future. However, the opposite is not necessarily a “Yes.” That is, if the question is posed as “Would you believe a model’s forecast of the reservoir’s behavior in the future if it is able to match the behavior of the reservoir in the past?,” then the answer should be “It depends” or “Yes, but only to a certain degree.”

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