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On the basis of our experience in evaluating tight gas wells and reservoirs, we found that it is best to approach a complex engineering problem by first simplifying the problem and then solving the problem using a simple model, such as decline curve analysis, type curves, and/or analytical solutions. These models usually provide an approximate solution and give reasonably accurate answers for the values of permeability, fracture half-length, original gas-in-place, and other important parameters. We call this the 80% answer. To obtain more-accurate estimates of parameters such as permeability, skin, hydraulic fracture length, and fracture conductivity and to predict well performance more accurately, we then use finite-difference modeling, especially when we must model layered reservoirs.

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