Abstract With the recent downward pressure on oil and gas prices, the oil and gas industry is operating in a reduced capital environment and is optimizing expenditures throughout the lifecycle of an oil and gas asset. In order to stay competitive, successful companies need to develop the next generation of technologies to enhance their abilities to be more selective in exploiting the reservoirs that underpin a project. In the past, the evolution of 3D and 4D seismic acquisition and enhanced seismic imaging techniques reduced exploration risk through the remote sensing of trap geometries, reservoir properties, and fluid presence, where favorable conditions existed. In higher-risk plays, such as those that depend on the existence of connected natural fracture networks to achieve economic flow rates, the ability to predict the presence, orientation, extent, and relative intensity of these fracture systems is necessary to improve the overall success in intersecting the highest natural fracture density and most productive reservoirs. Traditionally, the impact of natural fractures on reservoir performance has been analog-based and scaled to match production data. A new process-based numerical modeling technology has been developed that predicts the formation of natural fracture networks from structural history and geomechanics. This prediction is then calibrated to fracture data collected from image logs, core and dynamic wellbore performance data. Utilizing this field-wide spatial distribution of fracture connectivity can narrow investment uncertainty by optimizing the number and position of future appraisal, production and injection well locations. This new approach, enabled by advances in numerical modeling, high-performance computing and innovative laboratory methods, illustrates how technology continues to drive our ability to unlock value from complex reservoirs.

Abstract In the last decades, many discoveries and field developments have been made in deepwater plays around the globe. Important lessons learned in more mature areas like the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico - have been applied to more recent ventures worldwide. This presentation highlights technical learnings that supported success in these plays and application opportunities in Russia. In West Africa, over 22 billion oil-equivalent barrels were discovered in deepwater reservoirs in less than 20 years. This exploration success was due to the presence of robust petroleum systems, high quality reservoirs and efficient technology development and application. The Congo Basin and Niger Delta deepwater play areas were identified as active, oil-prone hydrocarbon systems and reservoir-prone long before any discoveries were made; under-scoring the importance of regional analysis. In these basins, companies entering the correct areas early captured most of the value. Exploration success rates were highest where 3D seismic was used and hydrocarbons could be directly detected. Many deepwater exploration discoveries have significant reservoir and trap complexity. With long construction lead times and high capital costs, early and accurate subsurface models are needed to deliver profitable deepwater developments. Subsurface characterizations leveraging highquality 3D seismic, more accurately predict reservoir and seal architecture. Fundamental understanding of deepwater depositional processes is a key enabler, especially when supported by an active research program. Later in production life, 4D (time-lapse) seismic, integrated with field surveillance data and history-matched reservoir models have been instrumental in identifying un-swept hydrocarbons and in-fill or re-development opportunies, resulting in increased hydrocarbon recovery. In Russia, Sakhalin Island and the Black Sea are areas with established and emerging deepwater exploration and development opportunities. Application of key learnings from a broad global experience base will aid exploration and help ensure profitable deepwater developments. Introduction The processes for finding, developing and producing oil and gas from deepwater reservoirs are different from other reservoir types in significant ways. First, often the environment in which these reservoirs form is the same in which they occur today - very deep water. There are many challenges associated with economic development of petroleum resources located in deep water. Robust risk and mitigation plans are needed due to the high cost environment and limited capability to recover from or drill out of subsurface "surprises". A second significant difference is that many deepwater clastic reservoirs, from slope channel to basin floor fan deposits, tend to have very complex reservoir and seal architecture which can be manifested during development and production by significant issues with reservoir connectivity and compartmentalization. Higher levels of geologic definition are often required.

Abstract Lithological description and permeability estimation using core-derived information of wells with just conventional well-logs is an old problem in reservoir characterization. There are many methodologies that have attacked this subject with major or minor success. Applied fuzzy logic is the matter of this article. Fuzzy logic invites the use of "partial truths" between the "completely false" and "completely true" alternatives. When it is applied to reservoir characterization, it accepts that any interpretation is possible although some are more likely than others. Whereas conventional techniques deal with absolutes, the new methods carry the inherent error term through the calculation rather than ignoring or minimizing it. One clear application is to lithofacies determination. Lithofacies typing is used in well correlation and is important for building a three-dimensional model of a field. The technique makes no assumptions and retains the possibility that a particular lithofacies type can give any log reading although some are more likely than others. In this study, core analysis of some wells and the established fuzzy relations are used to get the lithofacies description in wells having only log data. In addition, a sensibility analysis assigned to the capability of the model to predict lithotypes correctly when describing from the most basic lithology (sand or shale), to the most detailed seven core derived categories. Another application is permeability prediction. The problem with permeability is that permeability relates more to aperture of pore throats rather than pore size. In addition, determining permeability from well logs is further complicated by the problem of scale. In this study, a Fuzzy-model has been used to obtain better permeability estimations compared to some public conventional techniques (permeability prediction from effective porosity and Multi Linear Regression Methods). In addition, the method uses much basic log data sets rather than depending on new logging technology.

Abstract Neural Network technology is an approach for describing process data behavior, using mathematical algorithms and statistical techniques. The use of neural network for modeling process is increasing in several kinds of chemical industries. This paper makes comments about successful critical factors, advantages and disadvantages of this methodology. Moreover, it presents some applications in Hydrotreating process of the petroleum refining industry. In feedstock Hydrotreating, the knowledge about characteristics of process regarding product property estimation, hydrogen chemical consumption and removal of contaminants (sulfur, nitrogen, aromatics), is very important to process optimization, product quality control and environment protection. The Neural Network technique has been used to model the behavior of the hydrogen chemical consumption, generation of light gas, the conversions of the hydrogenation of aromatic hydrocarbons (HDA), hydrodesulfurization (HDS) and hydrodenitrogenation (HDN) reactions and product physical properties. Operation conditions and some relevant feedstock properties were selected as input variables. In addition, Neural Networks have been built to predict the cetane number and stability of feedstock and hydrogenated products. The models were developed with experimental data, which were obtained in hydrogenation pilot plants from PETROBRAS. This paper presents a comparison between pilot plant data and estimated data. 1. Introduction The neural network technology is used to describe the behavior of systems, through mathematical algorithms and statistical techniques, which try to mimic the human brain. The purpose of developing a neural network is to produce a tool that captures essential relationships in data. Artificial neural networks are computing tools composed of many interconnected elements called processing elements or neurons. A neuron performs a weighted summation of its input array and the application of a non-linear transfer function to this summation to give an output. The output of a neuron can be connected to input of other processing elements through weighted connections. Learning is the process of modifying the connection weights, i.e., it is the fitting of parameters in the modeling. These weights are obtained through an optimization process with the objective of minimizing the differences between the predicted and the observed outputs. The trained network can be used to estimate unknown output data; giving to the trained network the input data of the sample not included in the data set, the network calculates corresponding output data. Although a large variety of architectures exist, the feed-forward architectures, where data propagates in only the forward direction, are more useful for steady-state modeling. At present, there is the predominance in the li

Introduction The rational usage of energy resources and the reduction of environmental pollution become more important every day. There is a claim for the production of better quality fuels and the increase of the efficiency of automotive vehicles. Considering these two aspects, the use of diesel fuel is advantageous when compared to gasoline, because diesel engines allow greater compression ratios, resulting on better thermodynamic efficiencies. It is then possible to consume less fuel, which leads to reduction of CO2 emissions and consequently to reduction of global warming effects. Regarding the specifications of diesel fuels, large reduction of sulfur contents was imposed in the past. Nowadays, the allowed sulfur content keeps diminishing, while additional restrictions, which include the aromatic content, are being defined. The hydrodearomatization (HDA) process is an alternative to meet the recent diesel fuels specifications. In general, HDA studies are performed on bench-scale differential plug flow reactors, using mixtures of key aromatic compounds as models to analyze reaction rates. In this work, however, actual refinery products are used to build a mathematical pseudo-phenomenological kinetic model, which is employed to simulate and optimize the HDA process. The elaborated methodology allows the prediction of mono-, di- and polyaromatics concentration on products as functions of the feedstock composition and of the reactor operation conditions. Experimental Six real industrial feedstocks obtained from distinct oil sources and refinery processes were used in this work: kerosene, light gas oil (LGO) and heavy gas oil (HGO) from atmospheric distillation; light and middle gas oil (LGO/MGO) from delayed coking; light vacuum gas oil (LVGO) from vacuum distillation; and light cycle oil (LCO) from fluid catalytic cracking. Commercial Ni-Mo-S/ Al2O3 catalysts were used for HDA tests. Catalysts were sulphided in-situ on the pilot plant, by passing a stream of hydrogenated spindle doped with CS2 (20000 ppmw) for 8 h. The reactor was heated by six independently controlled electric furnaces, which guaranteed the isothermal operation over the whole catalyst bed. The reactor was loaded with 310 cm3 of catalysts and an up-flow arrangement was used to minimize back-mixing problems. The liquid product was collected into a refrigerated recipient for analysis. The gas product was analyzed in-line with a wet gas meter (WGM) and a process chromatographer. A total of 79 tests were performed in a completely automated pilot plant. Replicates and blank tests were carried out to guarantee that catalyst remained active. 22 tests were used for independent validation of the model and were not used for pa

I am very grateful to the President of the World Petroleum Conference for the great honour you have bestowed on Schlumberger and myself by inviting me to present this lecture in memory of Thomas Dewhurst. As the President of the Institution of Petroleum Technologists, which has now become the Institute of Petroleum, Thomas Dewhurst was instrumental in getting the idea of a World Petroleum Congress off the ground and he presided at the first Congress in London in July 1933. At that first conference Conrad and Marcel Schlumberger, who had founded their company only 6 years earlier in 1927, presented the results they had obtained in Romania using their new electrical well logging techniques. The early 1930s were depressed times for the oil industry as the brothers reported and I quote, "Difficult economic conditions have prevailed in Romania during the last two years and the oil companies have been obliged to cut down all ‘luxury expenses’. Under such circumstances, electrical coring has had to be conducted in view of its strict immediate financial return." In other words, oil companies were only interested in new technology if it improved their bottom line. It seems to us in the service sector that some things never change! The story of the Schlumberger brothers is typical of an industry that has prospered by a commitment to progress through technical innovation. The oil industry is a wonderful example of what the American economist Julian Simon had in mind when he said, "Resources come out of peoples' minds more than out of the air or the ground". This morning I would like to give you my perspective on the evolution of our industry and describe the tremendous opportunities new technology is bringing to improve our overall performance and enhance our contribution to society. This review is necessarily personal and incomplete and I apologize in advance to those who will feel that I have not done justice to the full range of our industry's achievements. First, I'd like to take a quick look backwards to understand our present situation. After being a key factor in winning World War II, the oil industry literally powered the development of Western economies. Oil companies were considered modern, clean, innovative, and above all, reliable suppliers of products which were essential to improving living standards and the environment. During the 1970s, the industry lost some of this image by failing to meet the expectations of consumers and shareholders. The Club of Rome, in its 1972 report "Limits to Growth" stated that the total remaining global oil reserves were only 550 billion barrels, while Jimmy Carter predicted that oil reserves would be substantially used up by the end of the 1980s. Concern that political and reserve constraints would limit oil supply caused prices to escalate. Higher prices slowed economic growth and by the end of the decade oil dem

THE DEWHURST LECTURE: Confidence in People and Technology THE DEWHURST LECTURE Confidence in People and Technology 16 th World Petroleum Congress, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Delivered Thursday June 15, 2000 by Philippe Rogier, Director of Foreign Affairs, IFP, France Pierre JACQUARD. Dear friends and esteemed colleagues, legacy can help us decipher our own future, which is uncertain by definition. Here in Calgary, it is my privilege to deliver this address in the memory of Thomas "Predicting the future is a hopeless, Dewhurst, founder of the World Petroleum thankless task, with ridicule to begin with and, Congress, an event that, for decades, has all too often, scorn to end with."1 regularly brought us together. This year, it is a special privilege and honor, because the 16th These rather pessimistic words by the World Petroleum Congress will be the last of a science-fiction writer Isaac Asimov apply century dominated by oil just as the 19th was perfectly to the oil and gas industry at large. dominated by coal. How many doomsday forecasts have been made about oil and gas reserves, or about the Before turning our attention to the impact of discovery and development costs on upcoming decades, let us take a moment to world economies or, more prosaically, about consider the past hundred years, a period of the price per barrel, only to be subsequently tremendous expansion for our industry. What disproved? forces drove this boom? Random chance and necessity, to speak like a biologist? Possibly. In 1885, the State Geologist of Market forces and the power of money, use Pennsylvania declared that the extraordinary today's terms? Probably. People and oil boom was a transient phenomenon and technology? Certainly. Throughout this that the present generation would witness its century, our industry has shown remarkable rapid demise2. adaptability, thereby proving that it is alive and well. Its ability to attract the huge amounts of That same year, John Archbold, one capital needed to supply oil to a steadily of the senior executives at Standard Oil, growing market attests to its status as a having been told by technical staff that the strategic economic sector. However, this could chances of discovering a new giant field were be said about many other business activities about one in a hundred, announced that he as well. The great oil adventure went further, was ready to drink every gallon of oil produced involving talented men and women fascinated west of the Mississippi3 ! by the oil business who could take advantage of the extraordinary tools offered by science In 1919, an article predicted the early and technology. depletion of reserves in the United States. The author pointed out that the country had They deserve credit, because they produced nearly 4.2 billion barrels of oil since glimpsed the immense possibilities lying the historic well at Oil Creek was drilled by ahead in a landscape illuminated by the "Colonel" Drake in 1859, and that no more fle

Abstract. 2.5 D basin modeling, pseudo 3D modeling or Map View modeling is today used extensively in the oil industry for prospect evaluation and appraisal. Most of these tools are strictly determininstic, while the uncertainties in many of the input parameters require stochastic modeling techniques. These pseudo 3D models are frequently linked with simplified fluid flow simulators based on ray tracing or percolation. The use of 3D basin simulators as an exploration tool has been limited by the trade off between computing times and geologically realistic grid sizes. The paper outlines some of the ways around this and our experience in this field. With increasing use of 3D seismic in an exploration phase it is important to develop 3D basin modeling tools that can utilize these data in a cost effective way. computing times for this to be developed into a INTRODUCTION useful exploration tool, the grids used are too coarse to realistically simulate secondary The term "Basin Modeling" is today migration. This is due to the high sensitivity of mostly associated with the simulation of the the migration to sediment properties and thermal history of a basin, the generation and geometric effects. expulsion of hydrocarbons and the migration, With increasing focus on prediction on accumulation and leakage of these pressure and GOR in mature exploration areas, hydrocarbons. 1D- and 2D basin modeling is the need for a true 3D basin simulator is today widely used in the oil industry during increasing. prospect generation and evaluation to define In this paper, we will show examples of and study critical geological factors. 1D Basin the development of basin simulators for Modeling was first described in the early petroleum system analysis from 2.5 D eighties, while 2D Basin modeling became modeling to a feasible and useful true 3D basin common in the early nineties. With 2D Basin simulator which is now being used in a true Modeling, the simulation of pressure and the exploration environment. We will also discuss use of basin simulators for overpressure some of the emerging trends and developments prediction has become common, and may in this field. develop into an industry standard. To investigate basin modeling results spatially in prospective areas, mapping routines are attractive methods, especially Pseudo 3D Modeling where input data are too sparse to perform full 3D basin modeling. This is often referred to as Map view modeling "map-view modeling", 2.5D modeling or "pseudo 3D modeling". This type of modeling Norsk Hydro has developed an in-house may be combined with the popular ray tracing map-view modeling system, Quick Vol 3D, techniques for modeling of secondary integrating the results from commercially migration (SEMI, (SINTEF Petroleum available

Abstract. A consistent screening technique was developed to quickly evaluate the Improved Oil Recovery (IOR) potential of oil reservoirs. This evaluation consists of: checking reservoir's geological /production data for consistency, selection of technically feasible IOR processes, performance projection for the selected IOR processes, and generating a complete IOR report, containing all the production and injection plots. A software (PRIzeTM) was built based on this screening technique. This computer program generates information on the feasibility of IOR processes based on the average reservoir parameter values, the driving mechanisms, and the current understanding of IOR processes; analytical models are used for most predictions. These analytical models have been selected by distilling a significant number of forecasting methods in the open literature. This paper discusses the PRIzeTM-based experience in evaluating the potential of waterflooding, chemically assisted waterflooding, miscible gas injection (CO2, hydrocarbon, and N2), and thermal recovery processes (steam drive, SAGD and in-situ combustion). Options for using horizontal wells in conventional oil recovery and IOR processes are also addressed. Although PRIzeTM is not a numerical simulator, it allows one to establish, to a first order approximation, the likely performance for determining economic viability of a given IOR process. can, in turn, be used for risk and economic INTRODUCTION analyses. The screening criteria are based on Selection of Improved Oil Recovery statistics of successful commercial IOR (IOR) process is extremely important projects worldwide. All reservoir because, as a rule only 10% of the total IOR engineering equations and algorithms used pilots have been developed into to generate the oil recovery forecasts of semi-commercial and commercial individual IOR schemes have been operations. This figure was generated from established by distillation of a significant a 2-decade statistics on IOR pilots in number of forecast methods existing in the USA1,2. Many of IOR field pilots have open technical literature. When necessary failed because the most appropriate IOR they were improved using our own method was not chosen. To assist in this, a experience. specialized software, PRIzeTM, was created With the exception of steam in 1992, and has been continuously assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), the updated and improved since. Our intent screening and the prediction calculations are here is to present the technical content of performed only for IOR methods, which are this software. proven via commercial operations. A general IOR method, applicable However, we included SAGD because of an to the complete range of field situations, impressive success in a semi-commerci

Abstract. The current petroleum exploration activities in the Tarim basin are mainly concentrated in the Mangar and Kuche petroleum systems. Exploration practice proved that multidisciplinary study using seismic(seismic-structural interpretation constraint seismic inversion, coherence calculation), logging reservoir evaluation, digital simulation on fracture distribution, production test and integrated geological analysis enables to identify the features of the carbonate reservoirs, facilitates to do lateral reservoir prediction and realize the oil and gas distribution laws and is a very useful method to do exploration in the carbonate oil and gas provinces. As for the complex high and steep structural belts, salt distribution areas, high geostress and mountainous surface in the Kuqa system, using the balanced cross section technique, fault-related fold theory and advanced seismic acquisition, processing, imaging and interpretation, as well as rapidly penetrating the huge salt interval drilling technique facilitates detailed and effective structural interpretation and oil & gas identification and may lead to significant exploration breakthrough, INTRODUCTION 1. Multidisiplinary carbonate reservoir analysis and prediction The Tarim Basin is located in the Xinjiang and breakthroughs in the oil and Autonomous Region, NW China, covering an gas exploration in Lunnan area of area of 560,000km2. It is separated to the north the Mangar system from the Jungar Basin by the Tianshan mountain, bounded on the SE by the Altun mountain and on the SW by the Kunlun The Lunnan area is located in the northeast mountain. Two third of the basin is covered by of the Mangar petroleum system, being one of the Tengeri desert, and the rest by gobi and the oil & gas enriched areas of the petroleum mountainous region. The basin presents a system. The reservoir rocks of the area are structural framework consisting of three uplifts distributed in the lower Ordovician, and four depressions, namely, Kuqa depression, Carboniferous, Triassic and Jurassic. In 1988, Tabei uplift, the North depression, Central uplift, the first discovery well, Lunnan-1, encountered a Southwest depression, Southeast uplift and commercial oil flow from the lower Ordovician. Southeast depression. Recently, new theories, As of 1998, there have been 47 wells drilled to new techniques and multidisciplinary integration the Ordovician in the area, over 70% of which were used with respect to the difficulties arising had oil and gas shows, and approximately 40% from the current petroleum exploration targeting encountered high yield commercial oil and gas at the carbonates and complex high and steep flows. However, the oil and gas reserves of the stru

Abstract. Process calculations and rigorous dynamic model with detailed coke combustion kinetics for two-staged regeneration FCC process were developed and integrated to the advanced process control(APC) context. The package was implemented in 6 Sinopec commercial RFCCU. Typical 0.5~0.8% improvements in target product yield were achieved, significant energy consumption was saved with tighter control over coke burning. INTRODUCTION On-line process Calculation Process calculation provides the key CVs for FCCU is difficult to control due to highly heat MPC. CCR estimation can be from either regenerator and material interactive nature of its reactor and heat balance or riser heat balance or both. CCR regenerator sections and frequent feed rate and estimation from the reactor heat balance gives an incomposition change, therefore, the computer aided time measure with reaction heat being calculated advanced process control (APC) techniques were from molecular expansion in riser whilst expansion developed and implemented in Sinopec refineries to factor C help achieve better FCCU operation. In this paper the R is correlated to catalyst H-Shift property based-on pilot-plant test data. Calculation from key points of APC technique and its FCCU regenerator heat balance generally gives a more applications are highlighted with emphasis on accurate result to update the reactor heat balance discussion of FCCU control strategy design. calculation. Commercial application result is represented at the Blanding equation is the start-up point in end. cracking severity and yields prediction. All yields MAJOR COMPONENTS OF APC prediction except coke yield are based directly on APPLICATION severity prediction. Catalystic activation energy is obtained from pilot data for most commercial FCC Model Predictive control catalysts in China. Complex riser quenching effected is handled in term of reaction time, temperature and The key component in today's APC arsenal is the C/O effect. Feed characterization method is updated model predictive control(MPC) technique. MPC to handle the VGO and residual feed. Coke yield are techniques use mathematical programming tool to calculated separately from catalytic coke, additional solve an optimization problem which adjusts the coke, pollution coke and strippable coke. process independent variables in time serials as manipulated variables (MV) to maintain the Dynamic Simulation & Model dependent process variables as controlled variables Identification (CV) in desired ranges or setpoints within the specified time sequences. MPC technique in APC practice shows that it is quite easy to obtain combination with an LP in higher hierarchy are a directionally wrong parameter

Abstract. The share of natural gas in global energy consumption has been rising steadily during the past decades and still remains on growth track. Of the world's two major natural gas provinces, the largest (Russia) is being exploited, while the other (The Middle East) is still rather untapped-hence its bearing on future gas supplies. Initially in this paper, the present status of natural gas in Middle Eastern countries is reviewed and the imbalance between proved reserves (32.4% Worldwide) and actual 1995 production (6.6% of World) is underlined. Furthermore, the gas industries of its major countries are highlighted. Turning to the future, the major options available to Middle East natural gas reserves holders are investigated. It is clear that from an economical point of view, domestic options look more attractive in the Middle East than export projects. The question of the future gas prices is reviewed as this matter will influence the feasibility of major export schemes. An attempt is made of outlining the future supply of natural gas from the Middle East, either in pipelines or LNG form (up to the year 2010). and it is concluded that the Middle East's present share in gas world trade is bound to grow considerably. 1. INTRODUCTION Natural gas began life as an unwanted by-product of crude petroleum production and as an unusable mineral resource. At the turn of the century, it eventually became a source of primary energy in the U.S.A. After the end of the second world war it gradually became a component of the global energy mix, with a noticeable growth in the West European market. Then, in the 1970s, Japan became a major user of natural gas too. Within a span of seven decades, natural gas's share of worldwide energy needs has steadily increased: from around 2% in 1920 to 23.3% in 1995l-as shown in Fig. 1. Projections for the future uses of natural gas show that its share of the global energy mix could still increase in the early 21st century: assuming ‘business as usual’, its share could rise from the present 23.3% to around 25% of global primary energy requirements by the year 2010'. 2. PRESENT STATUS OF PROVED GAS RESERVES As far as natural gas reserves worldwide are considered, two major provinces dominate the scene: Russia and the Middle East. These two major provinces account for roughly two-thirds of proved world gas reserves: their respective shares amount to 34.4% and 32.4% of total reserves. A breakdown of these reserves by region is presented in Table I and a simple graphical view is shown in Fig. 2. As can been seen from Table I, besides the two dominating provinces, the rest of world gas reserves seem to be evenly split amongst the six other regions. 3. TWO MAJOR PROVINCES If the proved reserves of

Abstract. The science base for global climate change involves natural science, technology, economics, and social science. Information is required to assess the extent, timing, and consequences of potential climate change, and to evaluate the feasibility, costs, effectiveness, and socio-economic impacts of response options. Since 1988 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been the agreed focal point for international assessments. Conclusions of the latest (1995) IPCC assessment have been used to advocate legally binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries. However, emissions reduction proposals under consideration would be very costly near term and achieve little future environmental benefit, even if climate change proves to be serious. A persuasive scientific and economic case has been made that the long term nature of climate change, the current extent of uncertainty, and the high costs of available response options all justify a more flexible response. Near term this would emphasize research to understand better the implications of potential climate change and the costs and benefits of response options. It would also include phased implementation of economically justified steps to limit emissions, timed to the normal turnover of capital stock, coupled with research and development to lower the costs of future response options. 1. INTRODUCTION This paper considers scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change in the context of international actions to address the issue*. The science base involves a wide array of disciplines in science, technology, economics and social science. Considerable information is required not only to assess the consequences of potential climate change but also to evaluate the effectiveness, costs and socio-economic consequences of options to limit the threat of climate change. Analysis and assessment of climate change must account for long time-scales and include both developed and developing country perspectives. This paper focuses on scientific understanding and its implications for near term policy issues. Rising concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) enhance atmospheric absorption of infrared radiation (IR) with the potential to cause global warming and associated climate change. However, gaps in scientific knowledge fundamentally limit our ability to predict the size, timing and consequences, positive or negative, of future changes. The uncertainties are not the sort where science provides estimates * Except where noted, this review is based entirely on information available in the Policy Makers Summaries of the 1990,

Abstract. Three European Directives are currently proposed: one targeting petrol and diesel fuel quality, the others targeting controls on road vehicles. Together these Directives define a least-cost package of emission reduction measures to be applied to road vehicles, and thus the contribution to be made by road transport in meeting European air quality targets at the beginning of the 21st century. The ambitious and unique Auto-Oil Programme guided the drafting of these proposed Directives by providing a comprehensive assessment of the cost-effectiveness of potential vehicle emission reduction measures. The tripartite collaboration between the European Commission, the Oil Industry (CONCAWE/EUROPIA) and the Car Industry (ACEA) was underpinned by numerous individuals and research establishments, each with its own crucial role to play. It was an ambitious undertaking not only because of the number of parties involved, but also because the scale of data and information required. Data and modelling were needed to understand current emissions and air quality, implications of forthcoming legalisation, future changes to the European vehicle fleet, emission control options and associated costs, and effects of control options and emissions and hence future air quality. The CONCAWE Poster Presentation compliments the paper by Hubert Knoche of EUROPIA by presenting an overview of the technical background and contributions to the Auto-Oil Programme. INTRO D U CTIO N Three European Directives have been proposed: one targeting petrol and diesel fuel quality, the others targeting controls on road vehicles. Together these Directives define a least-cost package of emission reduction measures to be applied to road vehicles, and thus the contribution to be made by road transport in meeting stringent air quality targets across Europe in the beginning of the 21st century. Particular emphasis is placed on meeting regional ozone targets, and urban air quality targets. The ambitious and unique Auto-Oil Programme guided the drafting of these proposed Directives by providing a comprehensive assessment of the costeffectiveness of potential vehicle emission reduction measures. The tripartite collaboration between the European Commission, the Oil Industry (CONCAWE/EUROPIA) and the Car Industry (ACEA) was underpinned by numerous individuals and research establishments, each with its own crucial role to play. It was an ambitious undertaking not only because of the number of parties involved, but also because of the scale of data and information required. Data and modelling were needed to understand: – current and future emissions and air quality; – implications of forthcoming legislation; – future changes to the European vehicle fleet; – emission control options and associated costs, and – the effects of control options on emissions and hence future air quality. AGREED AIR QU

Abstract. System analysis is one of the most effcient methods of cognition of the material world. The main objective of system analysis is to learn to apprehend sedimentary basins as integrated natural systems, to determine their structure, composition genesis and stages of evolution, to work out structurallithological classification of sedimentary basins and predict their oil and gas Potentials. The special feature of the analysis is a comprehensive complex study on sedimentary basins and natural reservoirs from lithologicalgenetics point of view enabling to work out new principles of palaeo-geological subdivision of territories and methods of geological and geochemical investigations of sedimentary basins. The system analysis features a comprehensive approach and might be subdivided into system-structural, system-historical, system-functional and system-lithological studies. There are three successive stages of the study. The first stage is based upon the results of the system-structural and system-historical studies and is aimed at determination of the structure of the sedimentary basin being examined and the history of its geological evolution. The second one envisages studies of natural reservoirs and seals and is based upon data obtained from system-lithological and system-functional investigations. The main objective of the third stage is a prediction of oil and gas Potentials of the sedimentary basins examined. The system analysis at that stage is aimed to solve practical problems of prediction of the most promising oil and gas areas of sedimentary basins. Methods and approaches to employment of system analysis in geology worked out by the author enable to use nearly all data available from different sources, to generalize the data obtained from interdisciplinary research and to receive comprehensive information on the peculiarities of the structure of sedimentary basin and natural reservoirs of oil and gas. The comprehensive information received enables to work out an efficient strategy for oil and gas exploration works. INTRODUCTION System analysis is one of the most effcient methods of cognition of the material world. The main objective of the system analysis is to learn to apprehend sedimentary basins as integrated natural systems, to determine their structure and composition, genesis and stages of evolution, to work out structural-lithological classification of sedimentary basins and prediction of their oil and gas Potentials. The special feature of the analysis is a comprehensive complex study on sedimentary basins and natural reservoirs. Such approach makes it possible to work out geological-geophysical examination of sedimentary basins as integral natural systems and also to work out an efficient strategy for oil and gas exploration works. A dis

Abstract. This paper gives out seismic information interpreting methods for deep steep structure in Sichuan, including connecting seismic data, processing and interpreting, marking stratigraphic, appreciating velocity information, making structure pattern, interpreting with seismic and geology, backing well information and so on. INTRODUCTION The east Sichuan Basin consists of deformed, comb-shaped, asymmetrical high-steep structural area with complex geological framework. The subsurface structures are complex and the quality of the seismic data is poor. The Carboniferous carbonates are the most important gas reservoirs, but they form a thin interval having rapid lateral changes in physical properties. Therefore, an accurate description of the structural shape, lateral distribution and physical properties of the reservoir is crucial in increasing the success rate of exploratory drilling. This paper summarizes the methods utilized to accurately interpret the structural shape and to increase the accuracy of prediction of the lateral extent of the reservoirs using the DTC structural zone example which is typical of the highly steep structures in eastern Sichuan Basin. Accurately interpreting the structural shape The seismic processor and interpreter work closely with each other integrating the analysis of stacking velocity, building of the migration model and time to depth conversion. Thus, the resolution, S/N ratio and imaging quality of seismic sections have increased significantly. The target formations have been accurately identified using the VSP log and synthetic seismograms. The reliability and consistency of identifying the target formations were verified by checking the seismic line ties. 3. The structural model is being built by a combination of the drilling data with wave field features of the seismic sections, and through forward modeling. Once the model is established, it is modified till a final model is reached, which is then used to guide the interpretation of the sections. 4. Important geologic features and structural details are accurately interpreted in the seismic lines. In the eastern Sichuan Basin the small folds, reverse thrusts, and small-scale faults are developed. Denudation and pinchout events are seen throughout the lines. There are rapid changes of the secondary thickness of the Triassic anhydrite formation. For this reason, the processor and the interpreter must understand the character of the reflection waves carefully, resolve and interpret complex wave fields to increase the interpretation accuracy. 5. Velocity data is analyzed and correctly applied. The important factor that affects the accuracy of the structural results is

Abstract. Geophysical technologies will continue to be the main building block for integrated earth models in the 21st Century. Major challenges for the explorationists will include: how to choose the appropriate geophysical technologies and their supporting data; and how to build and manage the integrated team that will use this wide spectrum of technologies. The increased use of 3D seismic data in exploration is a trend that will continue and bring with it opportunities to use new geophysical developments in prestack depth migration, amplitude versus offset lithology and hydrocarbon prediction, and geostatistical and seismic model-based predictions of petrophysical parameters like porosity and shaliness. Automated volume rendering schemes like coherency cubes and fault detection will also increase the speed with which the exploration each model is built. Each of these technologies must ultimately provide a clearer picture of the exploration earth model. Economic success will be proportional to risk reduction which in turn is driven by the accuracy and detail of the earth model. INTRODUCTION Exploration programs in the 21st Century will build a digital earth model to guide exploration and exploitation decisions (Fig. 1). This earth model will evolve through several cycles of enhancement and updating over the course of an exploration program. All geoscientists and disciplines will contribute to the earth model, but the main architecture and reservoir interwell detail will come from geophysical technologies. Recent and ongoing developments in prestack seismic imaging, automated fault analysis, amplitude versus offset (AVO) hydrocarbon predictions and high resolution seismic lithology inversion will have major impact on the quality and value of the earth model. Examples of these new seismic technologies will be illustrated in this poster session and are summarized hereafter. ID SEISMIC 20 SEISMIC TIME MIGRATION DEPTH MIGRATION VOLUME RENDERED CUBES WAVEFORM LITHOLOGY INVERSION Fig. 1. Geophysical technologies that provide input to an exploration earth model. DEPTH MIGRATION The earth model must be portrayed in depth to be useful for all disciplines. Advances in post stack depth migration and prestack depth migration not only provide a 3D data cube in depth, but provide superior seismic imaging in complex geologic settings. Recently, a post stack depth migration was completed for a North Sea play that covered 19 km x 27 km. This regional survey became the main building block for a pre-Cretaceous exploration program. Structural mapping of horizons and faults done early in this project provided a framework for further studies in hydrocarbon maturation/ migration, tectonic evolution, reservoir development, and trap integrity. Prestack depth migrati

Abstract. Construction of dynamic, integrated reservoir models requires input on geological structure and architecture, rock and fluid properties and their distribution, and on displacement characteristics. Early in development the limited availability of data usually leads to significant uncertainty in predicted reservoir performance. The band of uncertainty narrows when additional data allow for further constraining of geological realisations and rock and fluid property distributions. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art on the construction of high quality dynamic reservoir models and the tools available to optimise both reservoir performance prediction and field development planning. Further improvements in the prediction of reservoir performances are forthcoming. Developments in acquisition of data and emerging techniques for rapid incorporation of new data and upgrading of reservoir models will provide improved starting points for performance predictions. In addition continuous improvement of the quality of reservoir simulation models and reservoir performance predictions is ensured by ongoing and expected developments in the areas of (adaptive) gridding techniques, fast screening of geological realisations, generation of effective static and dynamic properties, modelling of complex wells and displacement processes, and modelling of multiple field developments scenarios. 1. INTRODUCTION Discovering hydrocarbons is no guarantee for economic prosperity. The profitability of an oil or gas field will depend crucially on how meticulously one plans its development. A key element from the very outset of that planning is a conceptual model of the hydrocarbon reservoir. The reservoir model provides an estimate of the amount of hydrocarbons that is potentially recoverable under various development schemes and serves as the basis for predicting the return on the huge financial investment that developing the field entails. The quality of these predictions depends critically on the quality of the acquired data and on the incorporation of these data in the construction and upgrading of the reservoir model. This paper reviews recent developments in the acquisition of data, the construction of high quality dynamic reservoir models and the tools available to optimize both reservoir performance prediction and field development planning. The first part concentrates on the early stage of field development when limited data are available and uncertainty in the predicted reservoir performance is significant. The second part addresses the handling of additional production and seismic data and data from additional (multi-) well tests, monitoring

Abstract. This paper highlights the importance of rock mechanical studies for improved recovery of hydrocarbons from sandstone reservoirs. In recent times the advancements in rock mechanics have been increasingly applied in reservoirs with intermediate rock strength posing potential sanding problem and low permeability ones where hydraulic fracturing is often necessary. The petroleum related rock mechanical studies can provide significant improvements in the following areas : optimization or rate of penetration (ROP) and orientation of deviated/horizontal wells; prediction of maximum sand-free production rate in friable or weakly consolidated sandstone reservoirs, optimization of injection and production well completions and locations for successful EOR programs; infill drilling and well completion to maximize hydrocarbon recovery; and hydraulic fracturing design for well stimulation. Rock mechanics study basically focuses on the failure conditions in which many criteria have been stipulated in the literature, constitutive modeling which characterizes rock deformation under various conditions, and determination of in-situ stress field. A careful assessment of the existing methods as well as specialized studies are necessary for application to hydrocarbon reservoirs. We have developed sophisticated rock mechanics and wellbore model laboratories to determine rock mechanical parameters and simulate sanding under in-situ conditions of reservoir pressure and temperature. Data from extensive ultrasonic experiments performed on cores and dipole acoustic logs proved useful in further characterizing reservoir rock behaviour. It is believed that carefully preserved cores provide the best representation of the formation from which they are withdrawn. Also, it is important to use the multi-stage rather than the single-stage triaxial testing in order to maximize the number of rock mechanical parameters from a single core. Wellbore stability problems are being revisited, along with in-situ stress field determination to optimize drilling and well stimulation. This trend is expected to continue beyond 2000 AD, with emphasis on experimental work and field applications. thus avoiding costly sand control methods such as gravel pack, in-situ sand consolidation, etc.; INTRODUCTION Rock mechanical studies, using both continuum and fracture mechanics concepts, have been increasingly applied to generate various petroleum related rock mechanical properties. These properties control many aspects of a hydrocarbon field's development and producing life-from the drilling phase to the economic production limit. Figure 1 depicts various aspects of rock mechanics influencing many petroleum engineering applications. The limitations of traditional linear, elastic or

This session was chaired by Prof. IBRAHIM M. AL-NAJJAR from Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, assisted by Dr. A. W. PREUSS from Germany, in the capacity of Vice Chairman. Four speakers, Eng. NASSER A. AL-SAYYARI of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Prof. RONALD HUGHES from United Kingdom, Dr. JEN ROSTRUP-NIELSON of Denmark and Prof. TADASHI HATTORI of Japan. These experts provided recently developed valuable information in the field of petrochemicals. After their presentations, various scientists from among the audience took part actively in group discussion and gave very important suggestions. Eng. NASSER A. AL-SAYYARI in his talk briefed us an overview of the Saudi petrochemical industry. He revealed the importance of feedstock in the future development of the industry and in the setting of facilities in Saudi Arabia. In the Europe, Rotterdam and other locations, became petrochemical centers due to the feed stock availability from the refineries located nearby. In the United States the industry was shifted from North to Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast. This enabled the industry to take advantages of feed- stock and lower cost of energy even though when conditions are most favorable. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia ranks first in crude oil reserves with around a quarter of the world's known total reserves. It is the fifth in the world in gas reserves, the largest oil producer in the last three years and the leading exporter of oil and LPG. LPG is exported at very cheap rate and some industry has invited to work on the use of LPG as feedstock for petrochemical industry. Oil production, started in 1938, amounted to 1400 barrels a day. By 1995 Saudi Arabia was producing some 8 million barrels a day. In parallel to the oil production, the associated gas production started, but was mostly flared away, due to the unavailability of profitable outlets for a number of years. In 1975, Saudi Aramco was assigned the job to design, construct and operate a system to collect, process and utilize the gas produced in association with crude oil. By the early 1980s the Master Gas System (MGS) was in operation. It is the backbone of Saudi Arabia's massive industrialization program outside the oil industry. It supplies the petrochemical plants in Jubail and Yanbu with its feedstock and fuel requirements. Eng. AL-SAYYARI further pointed to the fact that the flaring of the associated gas through 1980 not only wasted valuable energy and raw material resources, but also contributed to air pollution. The establishment of the petrochemical industry in Saudi Arabia has contributed to the drastic reduction of the flaring of associated gas as well as adding value4ost effectively to a depleting natural resource. The start of the Saudi petrochemical industry AL- SAYYARI said, go