The past twenty years have seen rapid change throughout the oil and gas industries. The next quarter of a century is likely to see different but just as significant changes. Sir Peter Holmes reviews the main features of what may happen in the petroleum industry.

Typical Industry Grude Price Views Money of the day - Arabian Light or equivalent $/bbI 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 - 1982 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Fig. 1. 113 114 Crude Oil Prices 1900 – 1993 (Constant 1993$/bbl) 70 60 50 40 30 Average US crude price 10 Typical Gulf-type crude oil price 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 O I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I l I l Fig. 2.

USDhbl 70 – 60 50 40 30 20 10 Price of Arab Light Crude (Dubaî 1986 onwards) 04 r 1973 1978 I 1983 1988 1993 Fig. 3. 115 40 - 35 - 30 - 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5- O Shell Oil Price Views OPEC capacity Cost of Environmental Frontier overhang alternatives pressures investment + + + + 4 4 44 Middle East Revenue Call on Slow CIS uncertainty pressures OPEC development I 1 I l I I I I I I I 1 I 1992 @bbl 100 [ jl 80 1 I 1- I 60 1- I 40 /- I- l 20 1- I- 1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2015 2005 2020 2010 Fig. 4. 116 Billion World Population U China W OECD 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Fig. 6.

The Demographic Transition Death Rate (per thousand population) 35 i O 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Birth Rate (per thousand population) Fig. 7. 117 250 - m b/d oe 200 180 160 140 120 1 O0 80 60 40 20 O World Primary Energy Consumption 1860 – 1990 1 * Nuclear/Hydro A O Gas m Oil RI Coal O Wood & Other 1 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Fig. 8.

World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type rn Other Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal NF B NF B ‘NF’ B 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 201 o 2020 Fig. 9. 118 Alternative Fuels = some considerations / No limitations 0 Some limitations 0 O Limitations 0 0 O Considerable limitations I LNG I.

E+- I Methanol I ..

Ethanol I Electricity 1 0 0 0 DistributionIl handling safety 1 Refuelling time I Vehicle range I Lubrication/ I I I I I I I 0 0 LI 4 I4 Other factors to be taken into consideration include cost and CO, emissions Fig. 10.

Oil Demand m b/d 1970 1979 1990 2020 USA Rest of OECD Non-OECD East Bloc of which: CIS Ref. fuekundries Total 14.7 17.7 18.3 22.1 6.3 10.6 6.9 12.8 5.3 9.1 1.2 1.8 47.4 65.0 Fig. 11. i 6.0 14 - 18 19.7 21 -24 15.6 34 - 49 12.8 14 - 21 8.2 7-11 1.5 2-3 65.7 85 - 115 119 WOCA Oil Demand I O OECD I mbld 60 - - 50 40 30 20 10 O 1973 1976 1979 1982 1 985 1988 1991 Fig. 12.

LDC Oil

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