The objective of this paper is to answer the following questions: Are there any more oil reserves to be found in the Middle East and North Africa? How large are they? Where are they most likely to be found? In what kind of reservoirs? To do this, the authors have reviewed some of the forecasts and predictions made by several scientists in recent years, and then made some predictions of their own in answer to the above questions and compared their results with the forecasts and predictions reviewed.

Most predictions and forecasts, including those in this paper, estimate that the undiscovered reserves in the Middle East and North Africa range from 120 billion to 370 billion barreis (16 billion to 50 billion tons). The average of these two figures represents 44.1 % of the area's discovered reserves or 21.3 % of the world discovered reserves.

The estimates presented in this paper are subject to some drawbacks, but we are inclined to consider the upper limit of our estimate range to be nearer to the actual value of the ultimate reserves.


L'objectif de cet article est de répondre aux questions suivantes: peut-on encore découvrir des réserves de pétrole au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord? Quelle est leur importance? OU y-a-t-il le plus de chances de les trouver? Dans quelle sorte de réservoirs? Les auteurs ont passé en revue plusieurs évaluations faites récemment, ont fait eux-mêmes plusieurs prévisions et ont comparé leurs résultats aux évaluations antérieures.

La plupart des évaluations, y compris celles qui sont présentées ici, considèrent que les réserves non découvertes du Moyen-Orient et de l'Afrique du Nord sont comprises entre 120 et 370 milliards de barrils (16 à 50 milliards de tonnes). La moyenne de ces chiffres représente 44.1% des réserves découvertes de la région et 21.3% des réserves du monde.

Les estimations présentées dans cet article sont sujettes à quelques limitations mais nous sommes enclins à considérer que leur limite supérieure est la plus proche de la valeur des réserves ultimes.

1.1. Scope and data sources

This paper presents an estimate of crude oil reserves-past, present and future-in the Middle East and North Africa. In arriving at this estimate, we have taken and evaluated data on reserves of existing fields from published sources, in particular the OAP" Secretary Genera*'s Reports' IF' data, the OPEC Statistical Bulletin, Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil. Figures for undiscovered oil reserves are our own assessment, using our information and following the procedures described in the paper. on the north by Turkey, the south by the Indian Ocean, the west b

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