With the fast pace of technology utilization, South China Sea has been having continuous exploration success, especially in shallow heavy oil reservoir with low resistivity contrast. The big uncertainty in this type of reservoir in this area is the well performance in the development stage due to formation laminations, various viscous fluid distribution, high connate water saturation and two-phase flow from the initial state of reservoir. To understand the key parameters that impact the later reservoir performance, the production forecasting analysis is needed from different advanced reservoir measurements, such as NMR, Dielectric measurement etc. to evaluate the uncertainty of the production potential, so that recommendations could be proposed to address these technical challenges and minimize the risks on later production.

A case study from an appraisal well in offshore China is presented in this paper for the productivity uncertainty analysis in shallow heavy oil reservoir with low resistivity contrast formation. By analyzing the different reservoir measurements from various sources, an integrated approach is conveyed to tackle the challenges by integrating all available data in a numerical model, and the sensitivity study on permeability, fluid viscosity, completion skins etc. was carried to understand the impact severity of these parameters to reservoir production in the numerical model.

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