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Keywords: forecast
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference, February 15–16, 2017
Paper Number: SPE-185053-MS
... data linear flow permeability uncertainty range production forecast type well evaluator forecast The last decade has seen vast growth in the supply of gas, natural gas liquids, condensate and oil from unconventional sources. In this paper we use the Holditch (2003) definition of an...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference, February 15–16, 2017
Paper Number: SPE-185021-MS
... Abstract A successful waterflood can be implemented in a multi-layered tight oil reservoir developed with horizontal multi-fractured wells. This paper forecasts the recovery factor that can be achieved in such a reservoir as well as discusses the challenges of analyzing and modelling tight oil...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference, February 15–16, 2017
Paper Number: SPE-185056-MS
... the point where the flow rates and the decline rates are equal." The forecasts reviewed in this paper confirm that a final hyperbolic b factor of zero is not common or in other words a constant final decline rate is not common. The data show that there is a transition from an initial decline rate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference, October 20–22, 2015
Paper Number: SPE-175932-MS
... into an analytical model by guiding the workflow with drilling, completions and reservoir understanding and how the surveillance data such as MS, production logs, and tracers validate the process along the way. This approach allows generating production forecasting and reserves estimates of this new...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference, October 20–22, 2015
Paper Number: SPE-175966-MS
... The basic premise of SEDA is three-fold: A best estimate production forecast is a good approximation for remaining 2P reserves, subject to a small correction for bias. A best estimate production forecast is dynamic and will change with time as the nature of the decline unfolds and the...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference, October 20–22, 2015
Paper Number: SPE-175934-MS
... tracer volumetric calculation Modeling & Simulation well 3 Otter Park well 8 Reservoir Characterization Upstream Oil & Gas input parameter fracture analytical model forecast fracture half-length well 2 probabilistic forecast probabilistic approach SRV Abstract Over the past...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference – Canada, September 30–October 2, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-171580-MS
... forecast solution gas production. Oil production, however, will decline with reservoir pressure depletion for most wells undergoing continuous production. Therefore, decline curve analysis (DCA) methods can be used to forecast oil production. This paper presents a simple methodology to easily predict...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference – Canada, September 30–October 2, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-171593-MS
... Forecasting MHFWs in shale gas reservoirs is challenging because of the long transient/transitional flow periods exhibited by most wells, and uncertainties associated with reservoir and hydraulic fracture properties. With liquid-rich plays, additional challenges are faced in the characterization...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference – Canada, September 30–October 2, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-171599-MS
.... A flow regime may last for many years before a change is observed. Abstract As the effort to develop unconventional reservoirs takes on a greater pace within the industry, so too does the effort to understand the way in which these unique reservoirs produce. Classical forecasting techniques...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference – Canada, September 30–October 2, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-171624-MS
... generated, based on the expected H 2 S concentration and production forecast, that is capable of directing the long term drilling and completions strategy as well as to provide expectations for use in the construction of facilities and selection of H 2 S treatment options. The drilling and completion...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/CSUR Unconventional Resources Conference – Canada, September 30–October 2, 2014
Paper Number: SPE-171636-MS
... uncertainty in reservoir parameter estimates and hydrocarbon forecasts. Also, the fact that production data is mostly multiphase ( Alkouh et al., 2013a ; Alkouh and Wattenbarger, 2013b ) violates the key assumption of single-phase ( Fig. 1 a) in most PDA models. Hence, there is need for an alternative...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference Canada, November 5–7, 2013
Paper Number: SPE-167208-MS
... each time increment to generate the aggregate production forecast. Table 5 Well Cumulative Production Distribution; Initial to Year 3 (10 3 m 3 ) Percentiles Well 1 Cum Year 00 Well 1 Cum Year 00.25 Well 1 Cum Year 00.5 Well 1 Cum Year 00.75 Well 1 Cum Year 01 Well 1 Cum Year 01.25...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference Canada, November 5–7, 2013
Paper Number: SPE-167215-MS
... As shown in the graph on the left, many different forecasts appeared to provide acceptable fits, yet yielded large variations in recovery. For this example, an Arps exponential and three Arps’ hyperbolic fits, each with the same exponential transitions were generated. All of the fits appear...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference Canada, November 5–7, 2013
Paper Number: SPE-167131-MS
... of uncertainty in forecast from that project. Depending on chance of commerciality, recoverable resource is classified as either Reserves or Contingent or Prospective resource. Finally recoverable resource is categorized based on recoverable uncertainty either as Proved (1P), Probable (2P), Possible...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Unconventional Resources Conference Canada, November 5–7, 2013
Paper Number: SPE-167118-MS
... Method (YM-SEPD) developed by the author is a much easier and versatile method to use, and most importantly it will yield a more reliable production forecast and EUR estimation. With respect to reservoirs with rock permeability less than 0.01mD, a more rigorous step-by-step work flow using Duong’s...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, October 30–November 1, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162593-MS
... 2 discussed above. Figure 5 Gas-water ratio versus cumulative gas production (Example 1). A ½ slope line is shown for reference. The objective of the current work is to provide 1) a method for quantitative analysis of 2-phase flowback data and 2) a production forecasting methodology...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, October 30–November 1, 2012
Paper Number: SPE-162666-MS
... controlled rate production for moderate stress sensitivity models (Ak = 4). Figure 4 Simulation Haynesville shale cumulative gas forecast for uncontrolled and controlled rate production strategies for moderate stress sensitivity models (Ak = 4). Abstract The high decline rate observed in...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, November 15–17, 2011
Paper Number: SPE-147588-MS
... Abstract Several analytical decline curve models have been developed recently for shale gas wells ( Anderson et al. 2010 ; Ilk et al. 2008 ; Valko and Lee 2010 ). However, despite the considerable uncertainty associated with forecasting shale gas production, these authors either do not...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, November 15–17, 2011
Paper Number: SPE-147529-MS
... are created for various type areas based on geological & petrophysical data and RTA history matching. Subsequently, key uncertainties are considered to generate production forecast ranges. The workflow followed in this study is illustrated in Figure 4 below. The specific methodologies for each...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, November 15–17, 2011
Paper Number: SPE-148710-MS
... and to have more confidence in forecast results, a history match was performed. By holding one of the more sensitive reservoir parameters (hydraulic fracture spacing) at constant values, multiple solutions with widely varied combinations of parameter values were obtained. Once several distinct...

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