Building type wells for unconventional resource plays in early phases of development is a significant challenge for industry. Although the application of statistical techniques to type wells is gaining acceptance, it is often unclear to evaluators how these techniques can be applied to accurately capture the full range of uncertainty in the average single well estimated ultimate recovery for a geologic subset. This lack of clarity in proper methodology is especially apparent when very few analogue wells exist, or a very limited amount of production history is available. The objective of this paper is to present an integrated workflow that can be used to build P90, mean, and P10 type wells, which represent the range of potential outcomes for the geologic subset in an unconventional resource play. Through this workflow, the evaluator obtains an understanding of the key value drivers for a geologic subset and can compare and rank different geologic subsets. The proposed workflow is illustrated with an example from a North American unconventional play.

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