The Canadian Deep Basin is comprised of a stack of tight sand reservoirs including channels and sheet sands with reservoir fluids that regionally vary from dry gas, gas-condensate to volatile oil. This Basin has been ranked one of the most commercially developable unconventional systems and has attracted many operators. Thousands of wells have been drilled in the area that tested a variety of well designs and fracking technologies over time. The initial development started with hydraulically fractured vertical wells that targeted all sand intervals in the vertical section, but the recent technology advancement enabled operators to focus more on horizontal drilling with multiple fractures along the wellbore. Assessment of the commercial development of these wells and the future of the assets depends on the proper evaluation of the performance of the existing wells and reliable production forecasting and estimation., Rate Transient Analysis (RTA) and multi-segment Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) techniques have been identified as the quickest and best fit for purpose techniques. Upon data availability, rates and pressures, RTA models provide better quality analysis over DCA yet DCA is required for many analog wells in the public domain. In our proposed methodology calibration of DCA parameters with the results of RTA is included for enhancing DCA quality.

This paper discusses the generalized performance characteristics of the Deep Basin wells under study. Key decline parameters such as the decline exponent and time to boundary dominated flow are discussed and compared between wells. Differences in well design such as well length and proppant tonnage impact the well performance and are covered in this paper with a suggested methodology for normalizing the performance data. Finally, a key focus of this study is uncertainty and non-uniqueness associated with the results. This is particularly important in early time when the wells are still in the transient period. Methodologies with probabilistic techniques are presented to address the issue.

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