This paper discusses a modeling technique that can be used to predict the gas production from Marcellus Shale wells. The fundamental concept is to model the relationship between pressure and production over time using inflow performance relationships and volumetric calculations. The model can be adjusted to fit the production values and then used to predict production on that well or on offsetting wells based on the pressures that are expected.

The introduction of this paper provides a general description of the characteristics and production volumes that are typical of horizontal Marcellus wells.

The theory separates the reservoir into two systems; the stimulated reservoir and the matrix reservoir. From these systems inflow performance relationships, decline curves, and volumetric calculations are used to build the model. Over time, the inflow performance curves will change. With this model, an inflow performance curve can be generated at any point in the life of the well.

By creating a model for a well, a prediction can be made of the well’s production if conditions change. This could be extremely helpful in modeling pipeline and compression systems or evaluating wells under changing conditions. It can also be used to estimate potential production from curtailed wells. Over time, the model may also be used to indicate if damage or enhancements have occurred or if chemical, mechanical or stimulation treatments were effective.

The technique could easily be applied to other similarly designed wells. This could include other shale wells, CBM wells or wells in naturally fractured reservoirs.

This paper presents a theory that is a "first run" concept, based on previous work, theories, and observations. The technique presented can be expanded and refined by future researchers.

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