This paper presents a simple yet sophisticated analytical model to predict cumulative steam oil ratio (CSOR) using the material/energy balance and gravity drainage theory, in which CSOR is a function of average reservoir properties (porosity, permeability, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity), and time-dependent variables (injection temperature, rising chamber height, chamber oil saturation, and producing fluid temperature) to mimic the practical SAGD process. This model has been applied to predict CSORs of the typical wells in the JACOS’ Hangingstone SAGD project. History match results show the reliability and accuracy of the model at different geological conditions. The analytical model has proven to be satisfactory to predict CSOR by reasonably adjusting a few reservoir parameters, such as formation permeability, effective net pay, and operational parameters.

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