Abstract
Optimizing operational efficiencies in unconventional resource developments is one of the key success drivers for improved economics. In this work, an approach for exactly that problem is presented, designed for a field development scenario in Germany. Starting with a model that captures all key parameters which are influencing a development program such as the gas market and prize scenarios, political situation, environmental regulations, logistical requirements, etc., it immediately turns out that the highly complex model has to be significantly simplified and a sub-model with clear and precise boundary conditions has to be generated. This sub-model is tuned to problems of particular interest, considering technological parameters such as the impact of various state of the art drilling technologies or different fracturing methodologies on the entire development program. It is possible to identify interrelations of various procedures and allows estimating project costs. Operational scenarios can also efficiently be tested, and validated and the financial key parameters of different scenarios can be compared. Moreover, short- and long-term benefits and drawbacks of various solutions can be assessed and optimized. Also, limitations of System Dynamics for that kind of simulation are pointed out, and it is shown how to solve the problem with an Agent Based Modeling approach.
