In previous works and published literature, production forecast and production decline of unconventional reservoirs were done on a single-well basis. The main objective of previous works was to estimate the ultimate recovery of wells or to forecast the decline of wells in order to estimate how many years a well could produce and what the abandonment rate was. Other studies targeted production data analysis to evaluate the completion (hydraulic fracturing) of shale wells.

The purpose of this work is to generate field-wide production forecast of the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS). In this paper, we considered oil production of the EFS only. More than 6 thousand oil wells were put online in the EFS basin between 2008 and December 2013. The method started by generating type curves of producing wells to understand their performance. Based on the type curves, a program was prepared to forecast the oil production of EFS based on different drilling schedules; moreover drilling requirements can be calculated based on the desired production rate. In addition, analysis of daily production data from the basin was performed. Moreover, single-well simulations were done to compare results with the analyzed data.

Findings of this study depended on the proposed drilling and developing scenario of EFS. The field showed potential of producing high oil production rate for a long period of time. The presented forecasted case gave and indications of the expected field-wide rate that can be witnessed in the near future in EFS.

The method generated by this study is useful for predicting the performance of various unconventional reservoirs for both oil and gas. It can be used as a quick-look tool that can help if numerical reservoir simulations of the whole basin are not yet prepared. In conclusion, this tool can be used to prepare an optimized drilling schedule to reach the required rate of the whole basin.

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