Precise predictions and solutions for tomorrow's needs are the key to building a growing, sustainable business. This requires a mixture of vision, strategic risk taking business model and investment in new technology.
Refining trends forecast is useful for predicting possible landscape, where in challenge would be to meet twice the energy levels from today with half the CO2 emissions by 2030. Increasing and diversification of world's energy supplies to support the population of over 8 billion then would be a mammoth task, given that the triangle of energy, food and water will be crucial.
Three fundamental factors that will influence and shape this setting are:
Global products demand will rise by 1.1% - 1.3% annually by 2030 to over 115 million barrels per day, with marginal influence of crude oil prices;
Reinforced legislation targeting reduction of GHG emissions, requiring improved clean transportation and bunker fuels - accounting 2/3rd of total demand and growth;
Refining and Petrochemicals form the backbone of global economics and meeting demand with inevitable steady profitability is a major task possibly also using alternative unconventional sources.
In competitive context – innovation, operational excellence and implementation of robust strategies are critical for sustenance and growth. Project returns can however be enhanced by incorporating integration principles and model at the design stage itself. Whilst development pace of new technologies would accelerate which can radically alter business structure in certain geographies, question remains on what makes a successful project come to fruition.
The presentation discusses futuristic economic unlocking of value by application of technology models and best practices by utilizing various feed-stocks, including natural gas as a main competitor and maximum upgrading bottom-of-the-barrel. Besides, novel process designs and operational control would be squeezed as it is invariably the last fraction which is most difficult to remove!
This paper contains forward-looking scenario about global Refining strategy, Petrochemicals feed-stock cost advantages, technology diversification routes to maximize returns from cheaper sources, financial performance and economics, growth opportunities in various countries, sectors or markets, besides a focus on Europe and GCC regions and current projects in Kuwait. However, these involve uncertainty as they depend mainly on future circumstances like commercializing R&D, not all of which can be controlled or accurately predicted, hence are directional for investment decisions.