The integrated reservoir management study was initiated to identify the best fit for purpose dynamic model for decision making with increased confidence in production forecasts and proposed field development plan. The mature oil field with complex geology and huge uncertainties in production allocation is located in the Gulf of Suez. These conditions made it necessary to evaluate and select the best suited approach between the deterministic and probabilistic approach.
Considering the geological complexity and field performance behavior, integrated reservoir modeling approach was selected to achieve objectives of the study. During that process, the screening for the best suited methods such as probabilistic or deterministic was made. Due to the heavily faulted and compartmentalized nature of the field with an incomplete understanding of probability ranges and relationship between different variables none of the approaches is perfect.
The acceptable field history match was achieved to serve the basis for future field development and to increase the current production rates. The chosen deterministic approach illustrates how the global and regional uncertainties can be narrowed down by consequent analysis and inclusion of observed well data such as RFT, PLT, production water salinity, tracer data etc. The accurate estimation of remaining production potential in different reservoir units was delivered. The promising prospects in the eastern blocks adjacent to the main producing field were identified. The estimated incremental oil production within next 5 years is around ~10 MMSTB. Above mentioned results were considered as a basis for the license extension which was about to expire in the year 2017. This integrated approach was helpful for understanding the difficulties in complex oil field simulation study, knowledge sharing between management of joint partners, G&G experts, and reservoir engineers.
The upstream industry projects demand the optimal solutions for business decisions under prevailing uncertain conditions. The presented case study provides a practical approach to achieve it. The lessons learned from the study may give a guidance to similar mature field development in the region and worldwide.