This article describes the approach to choosing the optimal strategy for the development of a large project at an early stage, based not only on the gradual removal of geological uncertainties, but also on the early formation of an integrated concept and maximizing the future value and cost-effectiveness of the project

The approach is based on the construction of scenario models of geology, development, ground construction, drilling in the early stages: search and evaluation. At the first stage, a probabilistic or scenario evaluation of the geological structure of the site and the volume of reserves or resources is carried out. The main geological risks and uncertainties are identified. At the second stage, the development of the field development concepts is based on all possible scenarios for geology. Further, the concept of a land development and a matrix of infrastructure solutions are formed on the basis of possible ranges of the production profile change, the most optimal and sustainable solution is determined in case of risks when new information appears.

The paper presents the results of the implementation of the project approach in Western Siberia. A detailed study and analysis of a priori geological information, which allowed to substantiate possible scenarios of the geological structure and properties of the reservoir, was carried out. A probabilistic estimation of resources by the Monte Carlo method was carried out for 3 objects, the volume of resources by the percentiles P10, P50, P90 was determined. On the basis of the results of probabilistic geological modeling, the modeling of the development was carried out. For each scenario, an optimal development system is determined by the criterion of maximizing NPV and resistance to geological uncertainties. The range of possible changes in the production profile has been determined. On the basis of these data, a matrix of options has been developed, including possible options for oil preparation, a system for maintaining reservoir pressure, transportation, the point of delivery and collection of associated petroleum gas, and the energy supply system. Taking into account geological scenarios, 5376 possible variants of the arrangement were obtained. Then the choice of the optimal options was carried out according to the following criteria: capital investments, technical applicability and flexibility of the solution to possible risks. Resistant to geological uncertainties elements of the development system are determined, which allows to start early design and preparation for construction, contributing to the acceleration of the project and increase its value. Early study of the integrated concept of project development allowed: to identify the range of optimal technical and management solutions in the absence of actual data, to formulate a plan for advanced research, to structure the geological exploration program for the timely selection of optimal infrastructure solutions, to conduct a complete management of the business case of the project from initiation to implementation.

The novelty of the approach lies in the early development of conceptual solutions based on the integrated model of the structure at the stage of search and evaluation. A new methodical approach is proposed for creating a "conceptual vision" of possible settlement systems justified by engineering calculations. This approach is applicable to all major geological exploration projects in the early stages in conditions of high geological uncertainties. Formation of the strategy of geological exploration at an early stage, based on an integrated model, can significantly increase the economic value and effectiveness of the project.

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