Abstract
For the most objective evaluation of deposits with low geological knowledge and obtaining the scope of the most likely development results, the use of uncertainty analysis tools is necessary. This type of analysis includes the maximum possible set of geological and hydrodynamic parameters that have a major impact on hydrocarbon production levels, where each of them has uncertainties that affect the final result to varying degrees. All these parameters are subjected to probabilistic estimation in terms of compliance with available information on well testing. To solve the problem of a large number of estimation options, the most optimal methods for creating model implementations and using proxy modeling are applied. The application of the developed algorithm allows to evaluate both the hydrodynamic and geological parameters of the model for the probabilistic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves by strata and the results of production in the field as a whole. The performed works allow to make detailed recommendations on the removal of the most critical uncertainties for the objects of study.
