Oil production is influenced by many parameters, for example the distribution of the petrophysical properties, fluid contacts, relative permeabilities, faults, aquifer strength etc. These parameters influence the production production process in different manners, with every parameter displaying its own, unique, level of uncertainty. This is one reason why the probabilistic approach, which takes into account the major uncertaintiesin the reservoir description and production processes, has developed into an important tool for the prediction of a field's hydrocarbon recovery. This is especially important in the case of heterogeneous reservoirs and horizontal wells. Here, unexpected early water or gas breakthrough into one of the zones will reduce the oil production by preventing oil inflow from other parts of the well.

Intelligent Well (IW) Technology has ability to identify and control the inflow rate at a zone level, preventing the breakthrough of unwanted gas or water. Previous work examined the impact of choking by an IW's Interval Control Valves (ICVs) on the geological uncertainty attributed to the statistical distribution of the formation's properties[l].

This paper extends this study to the “dynamic” parameters (fluid contacts, relative permeabilities, aquifer strength and zonal skin). Each of these parameters exhibit its own uncertainty; with each, individual uncertainty being combined to generate an accurate estimation of overall risk associated with the reservoir's development. The workflow employed will be demonstrated for two cases. This will be followed by an analysis to identify which of the above factors allow the flow control ability of an IW to reduce the production uncertainty in general as well as in specific cases.

The results emphasize the importance of the probabilistic approach for production prediction and illustrate its use as a tool to justify the installation of IW Technology in a particular well. This method will be used for both estimating, as well as reducing, the risks associated with the initial uncertainty of a planned development.

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