Actual coning behavior in a horizontal well is not fully understood. Lacks of knowledge of fluids distribution within the reservoir and the heterogeneity as well lead to either over-predicting or under-predicting performance of the well implemented. The prediction done then needs to be revised in the effort to re-evaluate the economic of the well.

This paper presents a semi-empirical method for predicting post breakthrough performance of horizontal wells. The method was developed based on straight forward Darcy equation for linear flow and the principle of material balance. An iterative procedure of calculation is provided for predicting production performance. Based on results of the parametric study conducted using a numerical reservoir simulator, corrections necessary for the linear flow model proposed were established. Water cresting efficiency is defined in this study by inverting the correction factor and was found systematically to relate with factors that influence the coning behavior.

The applicability of the proposed method was validated using two sets of field data. The first data set is the case having practically initial zero water cut, while the other set represents cases with high water cut since the production start up. Results of prediction for both cases are in very good agreement with the field data.

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