Natural gas is swiftly moving from a locally traded commodity in regional markets to a globally traded commodity. This paper describes a numerical model of international gas trade which evaluates the effects of inter- and intra-regional gas trade on demand, supply and price.

Preliminary evidence indicates natural gas prices are 15 to 30% lower in real terms when inter-regional trade occurs and local consumption of natural gas increases relative to fuel oil in the local market.

Natural gas developers or marketers that explicitly consider the inter-regional impacts of gas trade will have a greater likelihood of understanding the risks in marginal projects and are more likely to embrace economic projects and eschew non-economic projects.

Keywords:
supply and demand pricing, economic view, end-use price, natural gas price, spe 24238, competition, gas trade, producer, western europe, market analysis
Subjects:
Natural Gas Conversion and Storage, Energy Economics, Compressed natural gas (CNG), Liquified natural gas (LNG), Market analysis /supply and demand forecasting/pricing
Copyright 1992, Society of Petroleum Engineers
You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download.