This paper shows how the established Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimating hydrocarbon reserves can be expanded to provide the basis of a comprehensive valuation, planning and control system meeting all the reserve reporting requirements of an oil exploration and production company. The approach presented is also appropriate for other mining and extractive industries.
The paper demonstrates how individual expectation curves can be modified to reflect both technically and commercially recoverable reserves and how these are in turn combined into the economic valuation, planning and control processes of an enterprise. Estimates across the full range of risk and reserves can be aggregated to provide a powerful planning tool that can be used to set corporate, divisional and individual objectives. The way in which reserve estimates can be used as a sensitive control system to monitor an organisation's ongoing ability to meet its objectives is also demonstrated.