This paper examines the longer-term prospects for activity levels in the UKCS under low oil prices with the employment of a financial model incorporating the use of the Monte Carlo technique. On current trends, from the early years of next century production could fall at a substantial pace even when discoveries from exploration are included in the analysis. Compared to recent years new investment would fall to much lower levels under the $14 price case and collapse under the $10 one. If major reductions in unit costs, such as those in the CRINE Network targets were achieved, the decline rates of production could be greatly modified. The CRINE targets are extremely ambitious and their achievement requires the widespread use of new technologies. This requires funding and contracts which encourage innovation and risk-taking.

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