This paper describes the latest advances in computerised prediction of the risk of collisions between passing merchant ships and offshore installations. Although there have been no major accidents yet in the North Sea as a result of collisions, there have been sufficient collisions from small ships and sufficient incidents of errant and drifting large ships to demonstrate that the accident potential is significant.
To quantify the risk of such accidents, the Department of Energy commissioned Technica to develop a computer model CRASH, which has since been widely used to provide input to offshore risk analyses. Recently, responding to concern that the collision risks may have been over-estimated, Technica have reviewed the model and validated it against actual collision experience.
The paper outlines the collision risk model, presents some typical results, and describes the CRASH program which runs on a personal computer and makes the collision risk prediction technique available to offshore operators.