ABSTRACT
The Achilles' heel of risk analysis is the inability to ascribe probabilities with the required degree of precision. In this paper, a novel approach to the problem of decision making under uncertainty is elucidated. It uses three basic key parameters – the cost to failure, the value of success, the technical evaluation – common to all exploration plays and a derived parameter, the reward to risk ratio as a boundary or go/no go parameter.
It addresses two distinct decision making problems – the specific opportunity and the assignment of priorities. For the latter, a ranking method is used and explained in detail. Ways to extend the methodology to other situations are indicated.
Finally, the benefits of this approach, compared with the widely used Risk Analysis, are enumerated.
