Abstract
Many works on dynamic models for the maximization of the Net Present Value (NPV) on upstream projects have been published in recent years, originating in the academy as well as the industry. These models usually treat the effort considering either the exploration stage or the development stage of the petroleum field, but not both together. This paper will investigate of the optimum net present value in the upstream project considering both exploration and development efforts simultaneously. This model will enable to address some of the following question: (a) What is the optimum exploratory effort for a petroleum field? (b) What is the optimum time span which the exploratory efforts deserve investment before the beginning of the development stage? (c) What is the appropriate value of the reservoir recovery factor? The maximization of the NPV is represented by an objective function. The influence of the parameters in the estimation of the proposed objective function is shown by means of sensitivity analysis. Among the companies in the world exploring petroleum, several do not usually adopt a methodology combining the exploration and development efforts. Filling this gap in the methodology is the main motivation for this work, which intends to disseminate the use of the combined model in the analysis of the economic viability project of the upstream area.
