Probabilistic workflows become more and more applied in the current industry. Especially in fields with large uncertainties or property variations these techniques allow to capture the possible realizations of the reservoir and the range of outcomes for applied field development scenarios.

This document describes the application of a probabilistic workflow on a field located in Northern Africa. The field is an oil field producing from a fluvial formation. It has produced 0.5 MM stb to date from one production well.

In order to assess the future potential of the field, multiple static realizations were created based on probabilistic modelling of uncertainties in structure, channel characteristics (geometry, amount over the field and orientation) and properties. These static models were consequently initialized in a dynamic modelling environment. Several thousand static models were screened revealing the information implicitly stored in the data resulting in seven realizations for which an acceptable history match was achieved. All matching realizations showed a channel belt oriented in a SW-NE direction, apparently parallel to the main fault. Within the channel belt the net sand is high, but the area away from it is either predominantly non-reservoir or very poorly connected to the main channel belt. Some uncertainties remain, the most significant being the structure and the amount and distribution of the net reservoir and as a result the STOIIP.

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