In the last few years, water shut off (WSO) treatments in production wells have started to become as a part of standard well service. Decision making, taking into account the uncertainties of reservoir and well data, is a difficult job with regard to WSO treatment especially with the current high oil price.

The success of any relative permeability modifier (RPM) treatment is depending on the pre-treatment reservoir and well production parameters. The uncertainty within these parameters leads to improper prediction of the post treatment condition and consequently a wrong WSO treatment decision may be taken.

An RPM WSO treatment evaluation model was developed based on Monte Carlo simulation and a developed radial flow equation. The model predicts the post-treatment water cut and production rates specifying a range that extends from minimum output value to a maximum value in order to alienate any chances of associated risks. The simulation inputs and results are also illustrated as probabilistic distributions providing a complement to the previously cited production results. Decision tree model is used to choose the best option among different RPM WSO treatment scenarios.

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