Abstract
Present investment constraints in the industry require creative thinking, analysis and improved decision-making pattern in Brown field Development, Exploration and New Frontier investments. Value driven modeling and optimization provides an integrated approach where risking, volumetric uncertainties, schedule, cost, concepts, and fiscals are covered under one umbrella providing insights into risked value. This translates to probability distributions, e.g., hydrocarbon volume, reservoir parameters and their associated value (NPV) metrics (Fig.1). The case study is an opportunity in Shallow Water offshore Nigeria.
Optimal use of scarce investment resources and the need to make robust decision with end-to-end view of the risks and subsurface uncertainty impact on the project value and promised volume.
The methodology involves integration of subsurface analysis including risks/uncertainties of ten thousand (10K) realizations and stochastic surface network/Financial model analysis. These different analyses are integrated via a workflow to generate key insights in form of plots/data to enable business leaders make informed decisions having considered multiple possible realizations. These also provide insights in key drivers in an opportunity evaluation. The turnaround time is comparable to the processing of the discrete scenarios but adds much more value for the decision makers.
The results were generated with the help of spotfire tool (smart analytics tool) to give flexibility in the handling of multiple plots in 3D to enable clear view of development cut offs. Key outcomes include the plot of EUR/Well vs Field UR, Cumulative probability vs NPV (mln $), Net pay (ft) vs Porosity, Fluid contact vs Productive area, etc. Clear cut offs linking subsurface outcomes to value indicators (NPV, IRR) are established. Decisions are made quicker and with clearer perspectives especially for exploration and new frontiers opportunities
