As oil prices are fluctuating, decision makers are challenged to make the "best" decisions for field's developments. Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) can help decision makers to make the "best" decisions. DTA focuses on managerial decisions, such as whether to do workover or not, whether the additional information will be valuable or not. The aim of this work is to review the applications of DTA in petroleum engineering and provide a clear methodology on how to apply DTA for any petroleum engineering application. The combination of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and DTA is one of the most common methods used in the decision-making process. If EMV is positive, the decision is considered to be feasible. However, that doesn't mean the decision will be successful at all times. It simply means that if a similar decision is made for a larger number of cases, the decision will be successful. DTA will account for the uncertainty in the probability. A good number of papers about the applications of DTA in petroleum engineering were read and summarized into three categories. Also, a clear methodology on how to apply the DTA for any petroleum engineering application was established. After reading and summarizing a good number of papers and case histories about the applications of DTA in petroleum engineering, it was concluded that the applications can be classified into three main categories; applications of DTA and EMV for the whole oil and gas prospect projects, applications of DTA and EMV for a specific operation or development, applications of DTA, EMV, Monte Carlo simulations, and other methods to assess the value of information. These applications were summarized into tables. In addition, a clear methodology accomplished by a flowchart that explains how to successfully apply the EMV and DTA for any petroleum engineering application was provided. The method consists of three main steps: 1) how many scenarios need to be considered and what are they 2) collection of the required data 3) use the visual tool (DTA) or programming to find EMV. Each of the previous steps has its own challenges, thus these challenges were addressed and the solutions to overcome the challenges were provided. Finally, practical guidelines have were developed that when used with the accompanying flow chart will serve as a quick reference to apply the DTA for any petroleum engineering application. As the petroleum engineering applications becoming more complicated nowadays, accomplished by the oil prices fluctuations, the decision-making processes becoming more difficult. The DTA is a very important tool for the decision makers to make the "best" decision. This paper provides a clear methodology on how to successfully apply the DTA which can serve as a reference for any future DTA applications in petroleum engineering.

This research paper is aimed at explaining how information technology projects are effected by good risk management. Consequently, it can be used as reference for IS managers. It answers our concern of how risk management contributes to IT project success. Obviously, we investigated how project risk management effects IT projects, which is essential in various industrial activities. We looked into some estimates of the effects of risk management in IT projects. Our methodology approach showed how performance evaluation can be utilized to assess the impact of risk management on such projects.

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the design ingenuity and methodology used to complete a unique HIPS system, which was approved and chosen over the conventional and expensive Full Flare System solution for offshore unmanned high pressure gas production facilities. Some special design features were implemented to fulfill the Safety Integrity Level (SIL-3) requirements and ensure high level of protection for personnel and facilities. Additionally, this paper will illustrate the challenges for facility operators to preserve the HIPS integrity level throughout the lifetime of the facilities.

Decisions for field development of oil and gas reservoirs are often based on uncertainties assessment on forecast productions and other variables which are highly impacted by the uncertainties on the reservoir characteristics. Using geostatistical models, it would require thousands of flow simulations of several hours each to consider the geological uncertainties. Each of these simulations would require several hours even with current high power computers. To bypass this restriction due to the computation time, one approach consists to replace the simulator by an approximation of it, also called proxy. This paper focuses on the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) proposing an innovative method to build an optimal ANN.

Risk is theoretically described as any potential deviation from the predefined target with its defined specifications. It is normally linked to terms such as issues, uncertainty, unknown etc. With dynamic situations involving unknown factors which can have pleasant or unpleasant, and mostly unforeseen and unpredictable consequences. Project risk management is the art and science of identifying, assigning and responding accordingly to the risk throughout the life of a project and in the best interests of meeting project objectives and goals. Risk management is often overlooked on projects, but it can help improve project success by helping select good projects, determining project scope and developing realistic project targets.

Well Integrity Assurance is the key concept to reduce the risk of unwanted incidents in any oil & gas field, thereby ensuring safety of people, environment, assets, business and reputation during the entire well life cycle from Conception to Abandonment. Due to a huge number of wells and the ever-increasing matured field issues, the key challenge faced by Qatar Petroleum was to prioritize the remedial measures (rig & rigless) and pro-active health checks based on well risk conditions and barrier status. In this paper, we are elucidating the Risk Assessment Suite created by the Well Integrity Department of Qatar Petroleum to resolve this challenge. The Risk Assessment Suite is an innovative model to assess the integrity issues in oil/gas wells, to establish their associated risk level and to prioritize the mitigation measures/pro-active health checks in those oil/gas wells based upon the risk level and optimum available resources for ensuring that the wells operate in a safe operating envelope. The four major components of the risk assessment suite are Risk Ranking Guidance Matrix, Well Failure Matrix, Priority Ranking Matrix, and Well Risk Assessment Sheet. The Risk Assessment Suite is a highly successful methodology practiced in Qatar Petroleum for assuring safety, well integrity, higher return on assets and performance enhancement of its oil & gas fields. The highlight of this suite is its unique innovative model for prioritizing the rig/rigless repairs and pro-active routine/non-routine health checks by considering priority ranking points together with risk ranking as a single function in order to address both risk level and the barrier failure intensity of a well at the same time. Risk Assessment Suite is a highly transferable model that can be used by other E&P companies worldwide with similar requirements like Qatar Petroleum for prioritizing remedial measures and risk mitigation actions on oil/gas wells in their fields.

This paper aims to serve as a guideline to more proactive risk evaluation and management. Each firm is supposed to have certain amount of systematic (undiversifiable) and idiosyncratic (diversfiable) risk. By the very definition of systematic risks, it is inherent to the firm because of the industry it operates in. However the idiosyncratic risk keeps changing because of various decisions that the firm makes, including portfolio decisions. The paper proposes a technique to isolate the idiosyncratic risk of a project/business in a firm from the global portfolio of the firm. It focuses on quantifying this idiosyncratic part of geopolitical and regulatory risks. The idea is to use this quantifiable risk to understand the effective cost of capital for the project, and hence equip the project manager with a tangible decision tool for risk prioritization and mitigation, and portfolio management. The proposed framework has a broad range of applications across a multitude of projects (field operations, manufacturing, logistics etc.) and geographical locations. The framework first identifies risks to any project using a risk assessment framework. These risks are then quantified using risk likelihood and impact factors resulting in a risk index for the project. This risk index is used to modify the Capital Asset Planning Model (CAPM) by varying the beta of the equation in order to come up with a new risk-adjusted cost of capital of the project. It also briefly touches upon quantifying risks in a more dynamic setting during the running of the project. The framework is tested on a hypothetical project in the MENA region to show its application. In case of a project that is ‘riskier’ than the firm's average project, the cost of capital for the project increases after the framework is applied - thereby reducing the net present value (NPV) of its cash flows, and making it less attractive.

Uncertainty in reserves estimation plays a critical role at all-time steps of production/development plans and determines the financial strength of the project and the company. In this study, the importance of probabilistic approach to reserves estimation is emphasized by showing change in the estimated values of reserves with producing time. An analytic uncertainty propagation method (AUPM), a simple, yet quite accurate alternative uncertainty quantification method to the well-known Monte Carlo method, is used to assess the uncertainty in gas reserves estimations. In addition to the theory, as a case study, one of the largest Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) gas field, Çayırdere Field, reserves is estimated, and uncertainties for this field reserve are presented at all-time steps. As a result, the estimated value of the most likely reserve (P50) by utilization of AUPM in conjunction with probabilistic methodology prior to production period, matches quite well with the value estimated at the abandonment of the reservoir by using performance-based methods. The Çayırdere Gas Field Case Study supports the glorious success of the approach promised in this study.

Traditionally in desert operations in Libya, drilling mud and cuttings (water based) have been disposed of directly on the ground in unlined pits. This practice has lately been challenged because other than affecting the landscape, it can pose a risk to the soil and to shallow aquifers. To correctly assess the risk that this practice poses, REMSA and specialized environmental consultants developed a tool to predict the risk of pollutants transported by lixiviates reaching shallow aquifers below the drilling pit itself. The model has the capacity of determining the threat of a group of pollutants individually moving from the pit through the Unsaturated Zone. Other than modeling the movement driven by gravity, the model also considers biodegradation of organics and absorption processes within the Unsaturated Zone and dilution once in the Saturated Zone. This modeling tool (CREWD) has been tested in block NC186 in Libya and the results have been validated throughboreholes and excavations that reached down 4 meters below the bottom of the pit. The results obtained using the model, gave a clear indication that with the prevailing conditions in NC186 and knowing that the shallowest aquifer mapped is below 60 m depth, the risk of hydrocarbons, heavy metals or salts causing detrimental impact to the aquifer is extremely low.

Description Effective Management of the Contractor HSE performance starts from an Effective Mitigation of risks in the Tendering Process. In Contracts for Oil & Gas Industry, the work force was mainly Company employees and since 1990 there has been a significant increase in the use of contractor staff which resulting shift in responsibilities/risk from the company to contractor. International Association of OIL and Gas Producers (OGP) published "HSE Management Guidelines for Working Together in a Contract Environment" (Report No. 6.64/291, September 1999). Most Operators’ HSE Management Systems follow these Guidelines. Application Is the following sentence is true? "There is a very little that Contracts Professionals can do to drive the Best Safety & Environmental Performance on Site." If it is true, HOW can they do it? Is this a paradigm that they should challenge? How risk assessment is performed and how results are translated into Practical Contract Strategy? Results, Observations & Conclusions Results: As per the summary of OGP Guidelines for Contracting Process. Most current Contract Strategy Decisions and Most Operators’ HSE Management Systems are based on detailed Risk Assessments of each generic operation in addition to generically control many different tasks/operations. Generic contract standards are tailored to and available for different types of work and services Observations: Intent of OGP Guidelines. Is it sufficient to adopt a generic process for risk assessment & evaluation of Contractor HSEMS? What should our Risk Assessment focus on? Will such a generic process automatically identify & mitigate the most critical HSE risks, specifically relating to a Scope of Work? Should the degree of rigor with which we approach HSE risk mitigation be linked to the overall magnitude of risk associated with a particular Scope of Work? What is the most important strategic contract decision to be made by the Company? Samples of Contracting Strategy Modes. Conclusions: A Focused Approach to HSE Evaluation shall be developed and implemented. Develop Specific Contract provisions that will drive a "Technically Acceptable" contractor to improve his HSE performance Significance of Subject Matter Contracts Professionals can do the followings to drive the Best Safety & Environmental Performance on Site: Include a step in the Tender's process requiring specific technical outputs from Risk Assessment (for input into Tender requirements) Include a step in the Contract award process requiring specific technical output from HSE evaluation (for input to final contract) Management of HSE in a business environment where two or more companies work together requires co-operation between them and a clear definition of the tasks and responsibilities of each of the parties.

Abstract With rapid advancement in technology and familiarization with spatial imageries, Petroleum Industry users see the benefits of organizing and managing information geographically using GIS, especially for companies with huge data like Bapco. An Enterprise GIS System was initiated and being implemented within Bapco. The enterprise GIS system will help to manage data related to all aspects of Bapco's business units in an effective manner. A number of feasibility studies & workshops like Business Change, System Benefits, Success Measures, Application / Data need assessment, Stake-Holder Meetings have been held. The GIS need assessment includes a review of user work requirements and identifies where GIS application can improve user productivity and quality. The information system includes data from Oil and Gas assets, production, transmission, marketing, exploration, refining, environmental etc. The Enterprise GIS System is expected to provide a cost-effective method to access, monitor, analyze and manage data that is spread in different areas within the company and bring them under one platform. This migration consolidated fragmented data into a centralized repository; integrating with external applications and work flow processes like Petrovision, Wellview, OGN, OFM, IP, Petrel, Geoframe, IESX, Gocad, Pipesim, etc; and serving data to the enterprise GIS System. This paper discusses the approach adopted by Bapco towards building an Enterprise GIS System. Introduction Times are changing as organizations are becoming increasingly complex with technological advancements, turbulent environmental forces, and gigabytes of information, leaders will be faced with the challenge of nimbly making fast and ongoing decisions - effective decisions. These challenges require many leaders today to have a predictive understanding of the complex relationships among the organization's systems and design, employees who maintain those systems, field behavior, customer's perceptions and actions, shareholder's confidence, and revenue growth. Today's business applications rarely live in isolation. Users expect instant access to all business functions an enterprise can offer, regardless of which system the functionality may reside in. This requires disparate applications to be connected into a larger, integrated solution. This integration is usually achieved through the use of some form of "middleware". Middleware provides the "plumbing" such as data transport, data transformation, and routing. Therefore, it is a tremendous opportunity for change professionals and leaders to unleash their organization's capabilities using the enterprise technology. Enterprise GIS Project The basic idea of an enterprise technology is to address the needs of departments collectively instead of handling them individually and the mandate for any enterprise system is to ensure that all departments within an organization should have access to all the geospatial and non-geospatial information, so that they can operate at maximum efficiency.

Abstract This paper shows practical example in the direction of building "holistic regional depletion plan" by applying "fully holistic" and "fully probabilistic" modeling at the cost of the classic "precision" modeling that tends to include more physics. The approach came as a result of the oil industry low return on investment (ROI) that averaged at 7%. Deterministic methods usually ignore the full uncertainties distribution, associated risks, the diversification effects, and the interdependencies among the chosen assets. In addition it loses the proper interaction between the technical and the commercial value drivers. As a result, many rated oil companies fall since 1990 until near future. To achieve more realistic results, decision and risk analysis (D&RA) approach together with a "holistic strategy" (based on the Nobel-Prize wining portfolio theory that has shaped the financial markets over the past four decades and recently introduced to E&P) are applied instead of the conventional deterministic method and the "hole-istic strategy" that may lead to suboptimal solutions. Assets in the Nile Delta of Egypt were chosen to apply more modern modeling techniques by using less model "precision" for more comprehensive modeling of uncertainties and more integrated technical and business modeling. Full probabilistic methods that closely integrate technical and commercial data and tie that to the decision-making process are used to preserve more relevant information. This allowed the pertinent uncertainties to be exploited better and risks to be quantified when compared to the traditional deterministic methods. Optimization was carried out within the whole "value chain" at different "hierarchical levels" instead of optimizing parts separately that may destroy the whole value chain. With the current volatile oil market and the 2008 international financial crisis, integrating the endogenous factors (local uncertainties such as geology) and the exogenous factors (global uncertainties such as geo-economics) reduces the risk of the volatile oil prices and the political events. Proper risk evaluation and quantification for many assets enables to build reasonable efficient frontier (EF) that a firm can use to decide its optimum situation depending on the firm willing and to avoid misallocation of capitals. Introduction Gas demand in Egypt is increasing for both local market and export. The Egyptian government and its shareholders are trying to secure enough supply that meets the local demand and in addition supply part to liquefaction and export through LNG plants. Additional gas resources are required to fulfil this target and, hence, every possible opportunity to secure the supply must be investigated. However, the current conditions of increasing the development costs with nearly fixed gas prices in the Production Sharing Agreements (PSA), until the recent past, resulted in many small prospects being non-commercial. Doing nothing negatively affects the shareholders commitment to sustain production, meeting the high demand, and also negatively affects the gas resources position. Attention must be given to overcome this unfavourable situation especially under the current tough market conditions and the global financial crisis.

Abstract The last few years have seen a renewed emphasis on Well Integrity (WI) worldwide, and ADMA-OPCO in particular. ADMA operates, more than 600 wells, in two offshore fields, which include oil producers, water injectors, gas producers/injectors and observation wells. A dedicated team was setup to focus entirely on WI and related issues. The team was given the objective to achieve the following. -Determine the Well Integrity Status of the entire well stock through risk review and ranking. -Recommend appropriate action plan for each well with unacceptable level of risk. The team used a comprehensive and novel approach for handling this project. This paper is a case study of the methodology adopted by the team to achieve this task. Since the main objective was to risk review and rank the entire well stock, a dedicated risk-ranking process was designed, which served as an automatic guide to risk review and ranking of wells. The industry Risk Ranking matrix was modified to make it more objective and easy to use. It soon became obvious that risk evaluation of wells was only possible based on availability of good data organized in a user-friendly format. A dedicated database was setup in parallel with other activities. The web-based database was designed to contain all the data required for WI review of any well and is capable of tracking well integrity related tasks automatically. Well Integrity data included well construction, annuli pressures, production, well intervention, etc. The data existed in the office files were promptly transferred into the database. The team made a strong effort towards building the capabilities to acquire missing WI data such as Annulus Leak Rates, Integrity Test Results, Wellhead and Xmas Tree status. Annulus leak rate measurement skid was designed and built, in-house. One-off contracts were established to hot tap blind-flanged annuli and to perform Xmas tree and wellhead inventory survey and cavity checking/testing. A completely new system of WI certification has also been established. So far, the team has successfully reviewed and risk ranked majority of the wells in the two assets of ADMA-OPCO. Introduction: Well integrity is a growing concern in the oil industry. Years of cheap oil had placed this aspect of the oilfields on a back burner. Oilfields, specially the bigger ones are maturing and presenting new challenges by way of risk management.

Abstract Saudi Aramco is continuously implementing many new innovative techniques and approaches to assist in meeting the industry's increasing challenges. One of these innovations is the new study approach "The Event Solution." Theapproach leads to better synergy among different stakeholders and enables faster decisions that fully encompass the complex uncertainties associated with today's projects. The Event Solution is a short, intensively collaborative event that compresses major decision cycles, reduces uncertainty and provides a wider range of alternatives solutions. The concept is simple: identify the most important objective and focus the collective skills and creativity of a team of experts on meeting that objective in a special event that lasts just for a few weeks. The team is enabled with the latest hardware and software in a large team room where they can work together. A facilitator leads the team with the process that helps them to see "The Big Picture" and understand what matters to the bottom line. The team composition is enriched with representatives from all of the stakeholders (including technical experts, management, and facilitators) so that the results can be concluded and implemented immediately, with maximum buy-in. The Event Solution includes a detailed uncertainty analysis and risk assessment process that has been successfully implemented in many events. The most important deliverable of the Event Solution, however, is that all the stakeholders develop a clear and common understanding of the critical uncertainties, project risk, and the agreed plans to move forward---the decisions. This volume of work, which traditionally requires months or years, is completed in weeks using the Event Solution process. This paper presents the elements and processes of this new approach. Critical elements to a successful Event Solution include software, workroom, team members, and a facilitator. Once the elements are in place, the facilitator leads the team through processes that include project preparation, parallel workflows, uncertainty analysis, critical information plans, project risk assessment, and mitigation plans. Note that uncertainty analysis is not a simple by-product of the study; it is an integral component of success. Techniques are presented that can be applied to any study. Introduction Oil and gas producers are familiar with the performance improvement that multi-discipline teams can contribute to the industry. Joeseph Warren notes that the success of individual team can be variable when he states, "the fundamental idea of cross functional teams and goals appears to surface about every 10 years with a new label. Usually, attempts to implement this concept in the E & P business ended with utter failure for a variety of reasons." 1,4 The Event Solution extends the multi-discipline team concept by formalizing key success factors: identifying the most important objective, focusing the collective skills and creativity of a team of experts on meeting that objective, and collaborating via a special event that lasts weeks rather than months or years. In the 1980s the concept of asset teams was introduced. Unfortunately, integrated software was too immature at that time to enable real integration of the asset team members. As integrated software became more powerful in the early-to-mid 1990s the asset teams began showing more success. In the late 1990s, common processes were adapted by most major oil and gas companies to ensure repeatable success from team to team. Highly formalized processes, often employing gatekeepers, were developed to integrate the management (decision makers) and technical (asset) teams.

Abstract In this paper we have presented a new tool to evaluate the feasibility of an exploration and production project. An exploration and production project can be evaluated for feasibility using deterministic methods or probabilistic methods. These two methods vary chiefly in the way they manage uncertainty in the input parameters of the decision model. Deterministic methods neglect the changes in the input parameters with time, but focus on estimating the probabilities of the different outcomes possible at each stage in the decision model. A classical tool of the deterministic method is the decision tree. Probabilistic methods assume that a quantity to be estimated (e.g. reserves) can never be accurately determined. Rather it presents the possible number as a distribution. A typical tool in decision making using probablitics methods is the Monte Carlo simulation. Each of these two methods, probabalistic and deterministic have their own advantages and limitations. Our paper discusses combining the benefits of decision trees and Monte Carlo simulation. The new tool combines the simplicity of the deterministic approach and yet takes care of uncertainty in the manner of the probabilistic method. The result obtained by the deterministic method is fed into the probabilistic model as in input. The probability function for each input parameter in the probabilistic method is defined. Other input constraints and limitations are imposed and the model is simulated. The resulting output is analyzed and the associated risk or uncertainty for each output parameter is quantified. The output of the probabilistic model is fed back into the decision tree and the optimum decision is determined. The overall uncertainty in each decision outcome is determined by combining the individual uncertainties. The various options available in the project execution are compared using the new tool and the best project is selected on the basis of the highest return on investment or lowest risk. The advantages of the new tool as compared to using only deterministic or probabilistic methods are also demonstrated. Introduction The petroleum exploration and production industry is unique in a number of ways. Exploration and production projects are capital intensive and have longer payback periods. They have uncertainty in the outcome of exploration activities, uncertainty in price and customer demand for oil and gas. The viability of an E&P project needs to be evaluated keeping these uncertainties in mind. The industry has come a long way from the exploratory methods used in the 1800's where ‘wild cat’ wells would be drilled by enterprising oil prospectors with almost no idea of whether or not the exploration effort would yield a positive result. Neither the wild catter nor the investor could know beforehand the success of an oil venture to any degree of certainty. The oil business was thus termed a risky business. The only way to find the oil then was to drill in regions which had reports of oil seepages or a proven history for past wild catters. The industry now employees proven geological, seismic and mathematical methods in predicting to a significant degree whether or not a certain exploration effort would be successful even before the first well is drilled. The terms uncertainty and risk are used interchangeably in every day use. However there is a difference in the meaning they convey. Uncertainty means that the eventual outcome of a decision or event is not known precisely and the degree of certainty is described by the probability that it will occur. This implies that the possible outcomes of an event can be determined and the probability of each of these outcomes (or a combination of more than one) can be estimated mathematically. Risk on the other hand means that there is a possibility of incurring economic loss or reduced value. It is possible that a project has a high degree of uncertainty, but if its risk is low, then the failure of that project would be of no consequence. While risk and uncertainty is common in any business venture, the petroleum industry has a typical set of risks.

Proposal The management of risk is one of the most important issues facing the oil and gas industry today. This paper will focus on the need for risk management in the oil and gas industry. A typical project from a major oil and gas producer has been selected and its typical risks identified. The risks are analysed and modelled in the CASPAR (Computer Aided Simulation for Project Appraisal and Review) program. The paper distinguishes between pure risk and spread risk for forecasting the economic parameters of different risk scenarios. Introduction The increasing pace of change, customer demands and market globalisation all put risk management high on the agenda for forward thinking companies. It is necessary today to have a comprehensive risk management strategy. Having a process in place to identify, analyse and manage risks is paramount. The oil and gas industry is fraught with risk and it is necessary for these risks to be assessed continuously. In this paper, the authors examine the downstream risks inherent in the oil and gas industry and differentiate between the more manageable/quantifiable pure risks such as construction, health and safety and project management and the less manageable spread risks associated with war, terrorism and market demand which affect the price of oil and gas. Risk Management Merna, T, (2002) summarises risk management as: "Risk management deals both with insurable as well as uninsurable risks and is an approach which involves a formal orderly process for systematically identifying, analysing, and responding to risk events throughout the life of a project to obtain the optimum or acceptable degree of risk elimination or control". Figure 1 below illustrates the risk management cycle. Figure 1 Risk Management Cycle (Merna, A, & Merna, T [2004]). Performing risk management requires the use of tools and techniques. These tools and techniques allow identification and analysis of risks as part of the investment appraisal (Al Thani [2002]). Figure 1 illustrates the risk management cycle which includes the identification, analysis and response to risks. The risk management cycle is dynamic and must be continuous over the project investment lifecycle. Merna, T, (2002) suggests risk can be predicted whilst uncertainty can only be prophesied. Lamb & Merna (2004) distinguish between risk and uncertainty through pure and spread risks:

This paper was prepared for presentation at the 1999 SPE Middle East Oil Show held in Bahrain, 20-23 February 1999.

Abstract One of the greatest challenges facing petroleum companies today is how to prioritize projects such as drilling wells based on the likelihood of profitability. To accomplish this, the risks associated with each project must be fully assessed. Risk assessment is particularly important in complex, mature offshore fields which have already been drilled up and where the cost of further drilling is high. Drilling prospects in such fields may involve targets that are updip of current wells, at locations that are difficult to reach from existing platforms. Reserves are predicated upon the prognosed locations of sealing faults and upon assumptions about drainage patterns in the area. All of these factors make the assessment of all risks and an understanding of the range of parameters that affect reserves extremely important. A specific example from the Nubia C Formation in the Ramadan Field, one of GUPCO's most mature water drive oil reservoirs in the Gulf of Suez, is used as an illustration of how to address and to quantify risks. Several factors, including the likelihood of drainage by existing wells, the location of faults in the area, and structural character are quantified. Ranges for drainage volume, recovery factor, water saturation and porosity are incorporated as distributions in the assessment. The results of this work are a figure for risk-weighted reserves and a probabilistic rate profile which can be used to determine the economics of the project. Introduction Many of GUPCO's fields in the Gulf of Suez are very mature. For the Ramadan Field, one of GUPCO's most mature fields, the primary production zone historically has been the water drive Nubia C reservoir. This field is complex, having multiple fault cuts that are difficult to map completely, despite many penetrations over the years. Since wellbores are typically located at the top of the structure and the well paths are constrained by existing platform locations, reaching the remaining reserves at updip attic locations even closer to the faults than existing wells is very difficult and extremely expensive. Until recently the approach to determining whether to drill a well in Ramadan was been based upon economics generated by deterministic values of rates, reserves and costs. However, this approach led to several unsuccessful drilling wells, and it was clear that a better method of making decisions was needed. Over the past year, a new risk-weighted approach has been fashioned to assess the rates, reserves and, consequently, the economics of potential drilling locations. This approach involves defining distributions for volumetric parameters such as drainage area, porosity, net pay thickness and water saturation and determining other risk factors such as location of the updip fault, height above existing wells and drilling cost. Any desired parameter, including individual zone reserves, frequency of occurrence of any particular event as well as rates and reserves, can be forecasted. This PC-based technique generates not only risk-weighted mean values of forecasted parameters but also a distribution of possible outcomes. This type of information is extremely valuable both to the technical team and to management for making drilling decisions. Risk assessment for the sidetrack of Ramadan Well 33 (R6-33 S/T), which is detailed here, is an excellent example of this type of approach. The drilling of R6-33 S/T was successful. The subsea elevation of formation tops was very much as expected and porosities and water saturations were within the expected ranges, and actual performance is substantially matching the risk-weighted rates. Most importantly, the story of this well demonstrates how this technique can be used to address drilling well prospects in a complex reservoir. Since this well was drilled, the technique has been updated and improved and is now being used to assess every major GUPCO drilling prospect. P. 205^

SPE Member Abstract Jebel Dhanna is the only terminal for storage and export of the onshore oil production of Abu Dhabi Emirate. Crude oil flows from the tanks farm via two 48 inch gravity loading lines to the foreshore area where it is boosted by pumps to the loading berths. The two gravity lines are needed for export at peak capacity and also for implementing the crude oil re-circulation plan in an emergency. Due to the age of the piping system, a risk assessment study was conducted to evaluate the need for a new gravity line. Introduction Jebel Dhanna is the only terminal for storage and export of the onshore crude oil production of Abu Dhabi Emirate. It is situated on the coast some 250 km west of Abu Dhabi city (Figure 1). The terminal was originally constructed in 1962 with six tanks, each 50.3 in diameter and 19.5 in high. Seven more tanks, each 79.2 in diameter and 19.5 in high were constructed between 1968 and 1973. All 13 tanks have a common base which is at an elevation 64.1 in above sea level. The total storage capacity of the tank farm is 5.7 million barrels. Crude oil flows from the tank farm through two 48 inch gravity loading lines to the foreshore area where it is boosted by the loading pumps to four marine berths. Three more tanks have been recently constructed and are being commissioned at the time of writing (Figure 2). Each tank has a diameter of 102 m and a height of 19.5 m. This will bring the gross capacity of the tank farm to 8.7 million barrels. EMERGENCY TRANSFER PLAN The emergency response procedures (1) have been developed to deal with an emergency such as a fire, severe leak or a spill in the tank farm. In the event of a fire in a tank, the crude oil in the surrounding tanks is transferred to other storage tanks further away from the fire. This is to prevent the fire from spreading and eventually destroying the entire tank farm. The transfer of crude oil is achieved by controlling the inlet and outlet valves to the tanks and recycling the crude oil via one gravity line to the foreshore area and then pumping it through the other gravity line to the tank farm again (Figure 3). Alternatively if a tanker is available at berth, the crude is transferred into it. The sequence of action to be taken during the predefined emergency situation has been programmed in the computer. The interactive menu is available to the operator at the work stations in the central control room. CORROSION IN THE PIPING SYSTEM The majority of the piping system in Jebel Dhanna is buried. This includes the tank farm piping, the two gravity lines and the foreshore area piping. P. 383^