Abstract

Sustainable management in the Oil Industry is one of the crucial tasks to account for the wealth of a country. Usually they are expressed as a monetary benefit to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of its economy; and biodiversity, which are influenced significantly under the criteria of the stakeholders, in the context of sustainability policies with stringent regulatory character given by Governments.

This sustainability creates a dynamic interaction between social and economic policies that usually involves a decision-making process under uncertainty; given the lack of information and the different approaches taken by the company and / or reviewers. These agents are usually a barrier for governments to get a reasonable agreement with Petroleum; that means an equitable sharing between the States - Petroleum Companies with respect to their working interest.

A new approach is proposed to obtain the ideal government-take and royalties from oil contracts, based on the dynamic model of evaluation projects proposed in the Paper (SPE-169416-MS). This approach follows a fair methodological research study that shows a probabilistic model for estimating oil assets criteria for risks inherent in this kind of projects, and expressed with risk estimation "Pseudolimitante" which shows a dynamic and evolving time factor ‘R’ (Accumulated revenue / Accumulated expenses). Currently, the "R" factor plays a key role in Latin America and the Caribbean countries, so as to the feasibility of projects in mature fields; therefore, the evolution and dynamism of this factor depends on the optimal implementation upon regional characteristics and the degree of depletion reservoirs, which define the conditions of future contracts.

Once defined the portfolio with better range of remuneration to be negotiable, we will analyze the dependence of the differential risk with Incremental Gain, generating a percentile distribution (expressed in MUS$/differential risk) and parameterized in the range of 0% to 100%. This distribution allows us to obtain an ideal compensation, following an analysis that can share the risk investment; as well as the expected gain with the Peruvian State considering a 50% risk.

The application of this methodology is adapted to the Peruvian Northwest fields by means of a case study of a mature field, and on the way of renegotiation of Oil Contracts Services, between Oil Companies and the Peruvian Government represented by Perupetro; where a Factor “R” model expressed by an equation defined by a Probabilistic and Deterministic Study is incorporated. Likewise, this methodology will serve as a powerful principle in the future to optimize processes in the Estimation of unconventional reserves subject to these characteristics of uncertainty but at a higher level in terms of the input variables.

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