The objective of this study was to apply decision analysis to the design of a chemical flooding process. A base case was taken from a pilot test at the Big Muddy oil field, Wyoming. Areas of study included reservoir engineering in combination with cash flow, sensitivity and stochastic analyses; the last one through Monte Carlo simulation.

A microcomputer version of a surfactant flooding predictive model which included economic analysis was used for deterministic simulations. Input variables considered uncertain were ranked by means of a sensitivity analysis. Those having the greatest impact received further attention. Monte Carlo simulation was implemented to combine possible values of the selected uncertain variables. FORTRAN programs were written to conduct the sensitivity analyses and Monte Carlo simulations. To compare different alternatives the concept of stochastic dominance was applied in combination with conditional loss-monetary expectancy.

Finally, alternative strategies are proposed which could yield a significant improvement in the economics of surfactant flooding in a field such as Big Muddy.

Keywords:
stochastic dominance, monte carlo simulation, decision analysis approach, scenario, decision variable, oil price, sensitivity analysis, enhanced recovery, scenario 1, probability distribution
Subjects:
Reservoir Characterization, Improved and Enhanced Recovery, Reservoir Simulation, Formation Evaluation & Management, Asset and Portfolio Management, Risk Management and Decision-Making, Information Management and Systems, Waterflooding, Chemical flooding methods
Copyright 1994, Society of Petroleum Engineers
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