Empirical equations have always been used to fit and later predict oil rate production. The most common and widely use empirical equation are those we use during production decline analysis. With decline analysis equations we are able to predict in most cases production decline as a consequence of reservoir pressure decline. However, these equations will not perform as desired when a sudden reduction on the oil rate of a well has occurred as a consequence of changes on the well head parameters such as a change of the production choke or the gas oil ratio (GOR). These unexpected changes of the oil rate are not able to be predicted with most common used decline analysis equations and generally speaking with deterministic equation sets.

In this paper, a new empirical equation is described to allow the calculation of oil rate from a given well when only information of choke size and well head pressure is available. Calculated production from this equation shows outstanding result in terms of precision when compared with other equations available in the literature like Gilbert, W.E. (1954) and Ros, N.C.J. (1961). In addition, this equation can serve as a great operational surveillance tool when incorporated into a centralized production system and database. Finally, the methodology is described in a way that the reader can apply and adjust the equation to be used in oil fields with naturally flowing wells and stable water cuts.

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