This paper introduces Dynamic Risk Modeling and reports on a 2016 proof-of-concept demonstration of the emergent capability. While Dynamic Risk modeling can apply in any high risk environment, the demonstration focuses on the High Pressure, High Temperature (HPHT) drilling environment and uses 2010 Macondo cumulative risk as a demonstration scenario.

Dynamic Risk Modeling integrates the effect of human decisions with technical conditions; it enables three evolutionary capabilities in risk management:

  • The awareness of cumulative and current risk based on input from multiple points and times of origin

  • The quantitative insight of the coupling effect of multiple hazards when barriers or controls change conditions or fail

  • The incorporation of real-time data into risk awareness, management and decisions

The paper demonstrates enhancement of the digital oilfield by applying real-time data to predictive decision making. The model receives continuous well data, processes it through the model with other environmental and human factors, and translates it into real-time risk awareness and insight.

The demonstration of Dynamic Risk Modeling is applied to the Deepwater Horizon drilling environment in April, 2010 to show how a real-time representation of current and cumulative risk could have aided decision makers with critical information and insight.

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