This paper reports on a probabilistic risk assessment of estimated incremental individual lifetime fatal cancer risks to recreational fishermen from radium in produced water discharged by offshore oil production platforms. A direct approach used limited measurements of radium concentrations in fishes caught near three shallow offshore platforms. A predictive modeling approach estimated the range of radium concentrations in fishes caught near deeper platforms. Estimated risks were described as probability distributions. Median predicted risks associated with shallow offshore platforms, representing worst-case conditions, were always less than 1 × l0−5. Median risks for platforms in deeper water were always less than 3 × 10−7.

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